Fund says easing December inflation could lower living costs if trend holds
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has thrown its weight behind Nigeria’s December 2025 inflation figures and the revised inflation methodology introduced by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), describing the changes as consistent with global standards and supportive of macroeconomic stability.
In a statement issued on Thursday on behalf of the IMF Resident Representative for Nigeria, Christian Ebeke, the Fund said the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data points to easing inflationary pressures, a development that could help reduce cost-of-living pressures if sustained.
The statement was released by the Office Manager to the IMF Resident Representative, Laraba Bonet.
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated to 15.15 per cent in December 2025, following the rebasing and revision of the CPI methodology by the NBS. The IMF described the outcome as a positive signal for the Nigerian economy.
“We welcome the December Consumer Price Index inflation figures released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, which show an easing of inflation that, if sustained, will help reduce cost-of-living pressures and support macroeconomic stability,” the Fund said.
The December reading represents a sharp slowdown from earlier inflation levels, reinforcing expectations that inflationary momentum may be gradually weakening.
Alignment With Global Standards
The IMF noted that the NBS recently rebased the CPI and adopted a 12-month reference period for 2024, replacing the single-month reference approach previously used to calculate year-on-year inflation.
According to the Fund, the updated approach brings Nigeria’s inflation measurement in line with international best practices.
“The release reflects a welcome change in methodology that aligns Nigeria’s CPI calculation with international best practices, as set out by ECOWAS and the IMF’s 2020 CPI Manual,” the statement said.
Improved Data Quality, Comparability
Under the revised framework, the NBS now links the old CPI series to the rebased and reweighted index using the full year of 2024 as the reference period. The IMF described this adjustment as a critical improvement in data quality and consistency.
“Under the new methodology, the NBS links the old CPI to the rebased and reweighted index using the full year of 2024 as the reference period, making the data more stable and comparable over time,” the Fund noted.
While acknowledging that the methodological shift led to revisions in Nigeria’s 2025 inflation figures, the IMF emphasised that the overall inflation trajectory still shows a gradual decline through the year.
“This change leads to a revision of the 2025 inflation numbers but continues to show a trend of inflation coming down throughout the year,” it added.
Context and Market Reaction
The IMF’s endorsement comes amid public debate following the CPI rebasing exercise, which the NBS said was necessary to eliminate distortions caused by statistical base effects rather than actual price movements.
Recent data showed that Nigeria’s CPI rose to 131.2 points in December 2025, up from 130.5 points in November, indicating a slower pace of increase in average prices across the economy.
On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation fell to 15.15 per cent in December 2025, from 17.33 per cent in November, and was significantly lower than the 34.80 per cent recorded in December 2024, pointing to a sharp deceleration in inflation over the 12-month period.
The IMF said sustained moderation in inflation would be critical to improving household welfare and maintaining economic stability in the months ahead.
