Energy inflation rebounds sharply from 4.69% in August despite easing headline inflation, as rising petrol prices increase pressure on households and businesses….
Nigeria’s energy inflation rate more than doubled to 10.85% in September 2026, reversing the relative slowdown recorded in the previous two months and highlighting renewed pressure on energy costs across the country.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed this in its September 2026 Consumer Price Index report released on Thursday, October 15, showing an increase from 4.69% in August.
The latest figure represents a rise of 6.16 percentage points in the annual rate of energy inflation, equivalent to a 131.34% increase compared with the previous month’s reading.
The development comes despite a decline in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, which eased to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August, suggesting that energy costs are rising at a different pace from prices across the wider economy.
On a month-on-month basis, energy inflation stood at 5.38% in September, reversing the 0.36% decline recorded in August and indicating a renewed increase in energy-related prices.
An analysis of the NBS monthly CPI reports shows that energy inflation has fluctuated considerably since the beginning of 2026, with sharp increases followed by periods of moderation.
The rate stood at 11.17% in January before rising to 12.90% in February, its highest level in the first nine months of the year.
It subsequently declined to 9.90% in March and 4.60% in April before recovering to 5.73% in May.
Energy inflation rose again to 9.90% in June, but fell to 4.40% in July, its lowest reading during the period under review.
The rate edged up slightly to 4.69% in August before climbing to 10.85% in September, marking the sharpest monthly acceleration in the annual rate so far this year.
September’s reading was the third-highest recorded in the first nine months of 2026, behind February and January.
The latest increase has therefore reversed much of the moderation seen during the middle of the year, raising fresh concerns about the cost pressures facing households and businesses.
The renewed increase in energy inflation comes amid higher domestic petrol prices following the outbreak of the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States, which has disrupted global oil markets and pushed up crude oil prices.
Before the conflict, petrol sold for approximately N830 per litre in Nigeria. Prices subsequently climbed above N1,400 per litre in several parts of the country.
In September, petrol sold for between N1,400 and N1,430 per litre in Lagos, while prices in Abuja ranged from N1,400 to N1,450 per litre.
Compared with the pre-conflict price of N830 per litre, the reported prices represent increases of approximately 69% to 75%.
Higher petrol prices can feed into transportation fares, distribution expenses and the cost of running businesses, placing additional pressure on household budgets and production costs.
The impact of energy expenses is also reflected in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s July 2026 Inflation Expectations Survey, which identified energy costs as a major concern for businesses and households.
According to the survey, 60.9% of businesses reported higher spending due to inflation, compared with 55.9% of households.
Energy-related expenses, including petrol, diesel and electricity, ranked highest among the factors influencing inflation perceptions, scoring 74.1 points among businesses and 61.9 points among households.
The findings highlight the extent to which energy costs continue to shape spending decisions and business operations, particularly as firms contend with the cost of powering equipment, transporting goods and maintaining daily operations.
FG Introduces 30-Day Petrol Discount
Against the backdrop of rising fuel prices, the Federal Government has introduced a temporary petrol discount scheme intended to provide relief to consumers, particularly commercial transport operators.
On October 8, 2026, the government announced a 30-day discount window at Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) retail stations, with commercial transport operators given priority under the arrangement.
The initiative is expected to offer temporary relief from high petrol prices and potentially moderate transportation costs for commuters.
However, the government has clarified that the intervention does not amount to a return to petrol subsidies.
According to the explanation provided, NNPC Retail will absorb the discount through its profit margins, without drawing funds from the federal budget or the Federation Account.
The arrangement has nevertheless raised concerns among independent petroleum marketers, who argue that restricting the discount to NNPC outlets could limit its reach, particularly in areas with fewer company-owned stations.
Representatives of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) have called for the programme to be extended from 30 to 60 days and opened to independent marketers to improve access to the discount nationwide.
The latest energy inflation figures come as the government faces the challenge of easing fuel-related cost pressures while sustaining efforts to bring overall inflation under control.
Although headline inflation moderated in September, the sharp rebound in energy inflation underscores the continuing pressure from energy-related expenses on Nigerian households and businesses.
