Renaissance Capital raises valuation by 33.4% above IPO price as refinery posts $4.7bn profit in nine months……
Renaissance Capital Africa (RCA) has raised its valuation of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE to N700.41 per share, representing a 33.4 per cent premium over its initial public offering price of N525.
The investment firm increased its valuation from N619.40 per share following stronger-than-expected earnings by the refinery in the first nine months of 2026.
In an October 16 update titled ‘Stronger Refining Margins Drive Earnings Outperformance,’ RCA attributed the improved valuation to stronger refining margins and better operational performance, which pushed revenue, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), and net profit above its projections.
The revised valuation comes after the refinery reported a sharp increase in its financial performance for the nine months ended September 30, 2026.
Its revenue climbed by 144 per cent to $22.5bn from $9.2bn recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, according to financial results released on October 13.
EBITDA also surged to $5.5bn from $627.6m a year earlier, while net profit reached $4.7bn, reversing a loss of $117.2m recorded in the same period last year.
The refinery’s operating cash flow rose significantly to $3.68bn from $364.7m, reflecting the improvement in earnings and cash generation.
Its financial position also strengthened during the period, moving from a net debt position of $1.73bn in September 2025 to net cash of $650.8m as of September 2026.
Commenting on the results, the refinery’s Chief Executive Officer, David Bird, said the third-quarter performance demonstrated the company’s transition from commissioning and production ramp-up activities to sustainable commercial operations.
The latest valuation assessment comes as the refinery’s ongoing IPO enters its final days, with the subscription period scheduled to close on October 27 following a two-week extension announced earlier this month.
The offer opened on September 14, with 4.1 billion ordinary shares available at N525 each. Investors can subscribe for a minimum of 10 shares at a cost of N5,250.
Aliko Dangote, President of Dangote Industries Limited, has described the offer as the “People’s IPO,” saying it provides members of the public with an opportunity to own a stake in the refinery.
If fully subscribed, the offer is expected to raise N2.15tn.
RCA’s revised valuation places the refinery’s shares significantly above the IPO offer price, as the company’s stronger earnings performance adds to investor interest in the public offering.
