Nigeria’s oil earnings fell sharply in the last quarter of 2024, dropping 22% to N3.91 trillion, according to the Budget Office of the Federation (BOF) Q4 2024 Budget Implementation Report. This represents a shortfall of N1.09 trillion compared to the prorated quarterly budget estimate, signaling a significant gap in expected revenues.
The decline also marked a 15.5% drop from the N4.62 trillion generated in Q3 2024, though it still shows a 107% improvement from the N1.89 trillion earned in Q4 2023.
Revenue Breakdown:
- Royalties (Oil & Gas): N2.18 trillion – 36% above quarterly projections
- Concessional Rentals: N5.59 billion – 156% above target
- Miscellaneous Revenue: N8.79 billion – 118% above expectations
- Gas Flared Penalty & Exchange Gain: N108.54 billion and N1.22 trillion, with zero prior projection
Underperforming areas included:
- Crude Oil and Gas Sales: N335.69 billion – 8.3% below target
- Petroleum Profit and Gas Taxes: N1.25 trillion – 58.3% below estimate
- Incidental Oil Revenue (Royalty Recovery & Marginal Field): N15.57 billion – 40.7% below expectations
The drop in oil revenue underscores the persistent fiscal vulnerabilities of Nigeria’s economy, which heavily depends on crude exports to fund government operations. The federal government, however, remains optimistic that ongoing petroleum reforms, improved security in the Niger Delta, and tighter production oversight could stabilize future earnings.
Non-Oil Revenue Climbs:
The country’s non-oil income surged to N4.39 trillion, surpassing the quarterly target of N2.70 trillion by 62%, highlighting growing diversification in government revenue sources. Key contributors included:
- Company Income Tax (CIT): N1.5 trillion – 79.8% above target
- Value Added Tax (VAT): N194 billion – 96.9% above target
- Customs Collections: N837.38 billion – 16.8% above projection
The robust non-oil revenue provides a vital cushion for Nigeria’s budget, helping offset the shortfall in oil receipts and supporting ongoing fiscal commitments.
