Trade leads expansion, but high operating costs, power shortages and financing constraints remain major concerns…..
Nigeria’s business activity climbed to a new record in September, with strong demand and improved performance across several sectors pushing the country’s Current Business Performance Index to 117.8 points, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group has said.
The latest figure, contained in NESG’s Business Confidence Monitor, surpassed the previous record of 117.2 points recorded in February 2026. It also represented a significant improvement from 112.7 points in August and 107.9 points recorded in September 2025.
The report, titled Strong Demand Ignited Business Growth Amid Persistent Cost Pressures, said the September expansion was broad-based, although the pace of activity in Manufacturing and Services slowed compared with the previous month.
Trade emerged as the strongest-performing sector during the period, while most of the monitor’s sub-indices remained above the 100-point expansion threshold.
The investment index also returned to expansion after spending several months in contraction territory, suggesting an improvement in business investment sentiment despite the difficult operating environment.
NESG attributed part of the strong trade performance to increased stockpiling and consumer demand associated with back-to-school shopping.
Trade’s Current Business Performance Index rose sharply to 128.5 points in September, compared with 112 points in August and 107.6 points a year earlier.
Wholesale Trade remained in expansion and improved from the previous month, while Retail Trade also moved into expansion territory, supported by stronger demand and increased stockpiling.
Agriculture recorded further growth, with its index rising to 117.7 points from 110.5 points in August and 107.3 points in September 2025. However, Forestry and Fishing slipped into contraction during the month.
Manufacturing, despite remaining in expansion, recorded a slower pace of activity. Its index fell to 108.4 points from 120.4 points in August, although it remained above the 102.5 points recorded a year earlier. Cement entered contraction, while activity also weakened across several other manufacturing subsectors.
The Non-Manufacturing sector improved to 113.4 points from 109.7 points in August but remained below its 114.5-point reading a year earlier. Crude Petroleum moved into expansion, while Oil and Gas Services contracted.
Services also stayed in expansion territory, although activity moderated to 107.7 points from 112.4 points in August and 108.5 points in September 2025. Financial Institutions, Real Estate, and Telecoms and Information Services recorded stronger activity during the month.
Despite the broad improvement, businesses continued to contend with significant pressures that could limit further expansion.
NESG identified financing difficulties, unreliable electricity supply, insecurity, infrastructure bottlenecks and high rental costs among the major challenges confronting firms. Manufacturers also continued to face difficulties securing raw materials.
The pressure was reflected in the Cost of Doing Business and Prices sub-indices, which remained firmly below the 100-point neutral threshold at 39.2 and 58.0 points respectively, indicating continued strain from operating expenses and producer prices.
Businesses nevertheless maintained a positive outlook for the months ahead. NESG’s Future Business Expectation Index stood at 128.9 points in September, only slightly below the 129.3 points recorded in August.
Trade had the most optimistic outlook at 192 points, followed by Manufacturing at 151.9 points and Non-Manufacturing at 148.1 points. Agriculture recorded 134.8 points, while Services posted 123.2 points.
NESG said the outlook reflected continued optimism but noted that persistent cost pressures, limited access to finance, unreliable power, infrastructure gaps and security concerns could continue to weigh on business activity and fresh investment.
The latest business confidence reading comes as the World Bank projects stronger economic growth for Nigeria, after raising its 2026 growth forecast to 4.3 per cent from 4 per cent in 2025. The bank expects the economy to expand by 4.4 per cent in both 2027 and 2028.
