Nigeria’s key crude oil benchmarks Bonny Light, Brass River, and Qua Iboe jumped sharply above $77 per barrel last weekend following Israel’s military strikes on Iran, stoking fears of a broader Middle East conflict.
Data from Oilprice.com showed Bonny Light reaching $78.62 per barrel by Sunday, with Brass River and Qua Iboe closing at $77.09 and $77.14 respectively. This surge represents a significant rise from the recent average of $65 per barrel, exceeding Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 by over $2 per barrel, potentially providing short-term fiscal relief for the government.
Energy analysts caution, however, that rising crude prices may lead to increased fuel costs locally, as refiners grapple with higher crude acquisition expenses.
The price jump is largely attributed to renewed geopolitical risk, with Brent crude futures hitting $74.23 and WTI at $73 amid concerns over ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and threats to vital oil supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea shipping lanes.
While Israel’s strikes did not target oil infrastructure directly, the anticipation and eventual Iranian retaliation have unsettled global markets. Israel also reportedly shut down some gas production facilities as a precaution.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for nearly 19 million barrels of oil and petroleum products daily about one-fifth of global consumption remains vulnerable. Any disruption here could push prices even higher and strain global energy markets.
Notably, this surge contrasts with the price slump earlier this year, when global crude prices fell to around $60 per barrel due to US-China trade tensions.
