Nigeria’s FX Market Records First $4bn Weekly Turnover in 2026 as Dollar Transactions Surge

Analysts link record activity to possible large private deals, foreign inflows and temporary dollar pricing by Dangote Refinery…..

Nigeria’s foreign exchange market has recorded its highest weekly turnover in 2026, crossing the $4 billion mark for the first time as activity across the FX Spot and Derivatives markets surged significantly.

Total transactions in the FX market rose to $4.375 billion in the week ended July 24, 2026, representing an 83.38 per cent increase from the $2.386 billion recorded in the previous week.

The latest figures were contained in the weekly foreign exchange market turnover report obtained from FMDQ Exchange.

The record performance comes just weeks after the market posted what was then its strongest weekly turnover for the year, with $3.053 billion recorded in the week ended July 3, 2026.

Market analysts believe the latest jump may have been driven by increased foreign portfolio activity, major private-sector transactions and higher demand for currency risk management.

However, an insider familiar with the activities of the Financial Market Dealers Association (FMDA) attributed the unusual spike partly to Dangote Refinery’s brief decision to sell petroleum products in dollars before reversing the policy.

The source, who requested anonymity, said the temporary dollar pricing arrangement may have triggered increased demand for foreign exchange and encouraged more hedging activity among market participants.

Data from the report showed strong growth across all major segments of the market during the review period.

Total FX turnover climbed by $1.989 billion week-on-week to $4.375 billion, while average daily turnover increased to $875 million from $477.16 million, representing an additional $397.84 million.

FX Spot transactions accounted for the bulk of activity, rising by 81.85 per cent to $4.312 billion from $2.371 billion recorded the previous week.

The FX Derivatives market also recorded a sharp increase, with turnover rising by 333.59 per cent to $62.87 million from $14.50 million. The entire derivatives activity during the period came from FX Forward contracts.

Although Spot transactions continued to dominate the market, accounting for 98.56 per cent of total turnover, their share declined slightly from 99.39 per cent in the previous week as forward activity increased.

FX Forwards accounted for 1.44 per cent of total turnover, up from 0.61 per cent previously.

The size of the increase represents the biggest weekly improvement recorded so far in 2026.

Before the latest surge, weekly FX turnover had moved within a relatively narrow range, rising from $2.157 billion in mid-June to $2.323 billion the following week and then $2.835 billion by June 26.

The figure increased further to $3.053 billion by July 3 before dropping sharply to $1.631 billion. It later recovered to $2.386 billion before the latest record-breaking performance.

The jump to $4.375 billion marks the first time weekly turnover has exceeded the $4 billion threshold in 2026.

“You know there was temporary dollar pricing for Dangote Refinery products. This is the reason for the sharp rise in dollar turnover,” the FMDA insider said.

The record FX turnover coincided with a temporary policy change by Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which announced on July 14, 2026, that it would begin selling petrol, diesel and aviation fuel in US dollars instead of naira.

The decision raised concerns that fuel marketers could require additional dollar liquidity to purchase products, potentially increasing pressure on the foreign exchange market.

However, the refinery reversed the policy about a week later and returned to naira-based pricing.

Despite the short duration, the timing of the move has led some market participants to believe it may have contributed to the increase in FX Spot demand and hedging activities during the period.

Beyond the refinery’s decision, Nigeria’s official foreign exchange market has continued to expand, recording more than $46 billion in cumulative turnover between March and June 2026.

Spot transactions have remained the dominant form of activity, consistently accounting for more than 98 per cent of weekly turnover, while over-the-counter FX Forward contracts remain the main tool for managing currency exposure.

The latest $4.375 billion weekly turnover surpasses the previous 2026 record of $3.053 billion and highlights the growing activity and volatility within Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.