As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks his second year in office on May 29, 2025, one of the most defining sectors of his Renewed Hope Agenda agriculture stands at a pivotal crossroads. Under the stewardship of Minister Abubakar Kyari, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security has introduced far-reaching reforms, ambitious policies, and billion-naira interventions aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s agricultural landscape. Yet, even amid these bold efforts, the sector continues to grapple with deep-rooted structural and security challenges that threaten its future.
Building a New Agricultural Vision
The creation of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security was a cornerstone of Tinubu’s plan to reduce Nigeria’s overreliance on oil revenues, drive economic diversification, and ensure food self-sufficiency. With the mandate to boost productivity, create rural jobs, and enhance food access, the ministry quickly became a hub of strategic investments and programs.
Under Kyari’s leadership, the ministry has channeled over ₦309 billion into various agricultural initiatives. These efforts include large-scale mechanisation, fertiliser distribution, livestock vaccination, farmer education, and seed innovation. These interventions, according to ministry records, have created more than 60,000 jobs, predominantly in rural areas.
A flagship of this renewed effort is the Dry Season Farming Initiative, which expanded to cover 500,000 hectares and included the cultivation of 118,000 hectares of wheat across 15 states. This programme not only promoted year-round farming but also reduced reliance on imports during off-peak seasons.
Other notable strides include the distribution of 2.15 million bags of fertilizer free of charge in collaboration with the Central Bank of Nigeria. In the livestock subsector, over 14 million vaccine doses were administered, while modern animal clinics were launched nationwide to combat disease outbreaks.
Recognising climate change as an existential threat to farming, the ministry has championed climate-smart agriculture, encouraging the development of drought-resistant and heat-tolerant seed varieties. Partnerships with research institutions and universities have also been strengthened, ensuring that breakthroughs in agricultural science are passed on to farmers through an improved extension services system.
Infrastructure was not neglected either. The ministry constructed over 200 kilometres of rural roads, installed solar-powered boreholes, and deployed streetlights to farming communities, improving both productivity and local livelihoods.
A critical social dimension has also emerged under Kyari’s leadership. More than 20,000 farmers, especially youth and women, received training in agribusiness, financial management, and modern farming techniques. In addition, the formation of an Agricultural Sector Working Group signaled a commitment to inclusive governance, bringing private and public sector actors to the table to shape Nigeria’s agricultural roadmap.
Insurance schemes and climate information services were also introduced to help smallholder farmers manage risk and attract investment a step toward modernizing agriculture into a commercially viable sector.
Facing the Hard Truths: Insecurity, Inflation, and Infrastructure Gaps
Despite these wins, Nigeria’s agricultural progress remains constrained by profound, persistent challenges. Most glaring among them is the alarming rise in food prices, which have surged beyond 40% year-on-year for nearly a decade. This inflationary spike, while partly economic, is also a reflection of deeper issues insecurity, poor logistics, and systemic inefficiencies.
Across many states, farming communities are increasingly under siege. Banditry, kidnappings, and communal clashes have forced thousands of farmers off their lands, disrupting production cycles and discouraging investment. Food smuggling, which drains local supply chains, and poor market access due to bad roads only worsen the crisis.
Moreover, a flawed farmers’ database riddled with corruption and manipulation has undermined the equitable distribution of government support. Subsidised inputs often fail to reach the real farmers they’re meant for, creating a gap between policy and impact.
Post-harvest losses remain one of the sector’s most devastating yet under-addressed crises. An estimated 40% of food produced in Nigeria never reaches consumers due to a lack of preservation infrastructure, cold chains, and efficient transport systems an inefficiency that costs the economy billions annually.
Then there’s climate change: erratic rainfall, droughts, and flash floods have reshaped Nigeria’s planting seasons and damaged crops, leaving many farmers exposed. While programs like dry-season farming and seed improvements have been initiated, these interventions often arrive too late or on too small a scale to be transformative.
Expert Reflections: Applause, Concerns, and Calls for Continuity
Stakeholders within the agricultural value chain are cautiously optimistic. Peter Dama, Chairman of the Competitive African Rice Forum (Nigeria), acknowledges progress but says execution must match ambition. He commended initiatives like the National Agricultural Fund, tractorisation efforts, and fertiliser distribution, but emphasized that many of these policies remain “heard about” but not fully realized.”
Dama praised the concept of Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones, calling them a potential game-changer if implemented. He also lauded government support for rice fortification and seed quality improvements, two areas of increasing collaboration with development partners.
However, Dama raised alarms about economic decisions such as the removal of fuel subsidies, food import waivers, and electricity tariff hikes, all of which have compounded the burdens faced by farmers.
“Now, the import waiver… is a big challenge because it is making this country food insecure. If you depend on imports, your naira depreciates, your farmers lose hope, and your sovereignty is at risk,” he warned.
He urged the government to stop recycling policy promises without tangible action. “It is time we implement what’s already on the books,” he added.
Abubakar Kassim, President of the Fertiliser Producers and Suppliers Association of Nigeria, echoed similar sentiments. While recognising Tinubu’s declaration of a State of Emergency on Food Security as a sign of intent, he lamented the timing of petrol subsidy removal, which hurt farmers just as the dry season began.
“The cost of fuel impacted irrigation immediately. And then came the hike in transportation costs. The effect was swift and painful,” Kassim noted.
He also raised concerns about the influx of foreign rice: “Countries like Thailand and India had a bumper harvest and dumped excess supply on Nigeria. That undercuts our local farmers who now face lower prices and rising costs.”
Kassim called for targeted support to bring down the cost of production for local farmers, suggesting improved irrigation infrastructure and better access to affordable farm inputs. “Agriculture is not a one-off initiative. It’s a long-term, consistent process and we’re feeding over 230 million Nigerians,” he said.
Looking Ahead: Can Tinubu’s Vision Endure?
After two years, it’s clear that President Tinubu’s agricultural agenda is both ambitious and fragile. Minister Kyari has brought energy, structure, and partnership to a sector long plagued by inefficiencies. But unless deep-rooted issues insecurity, inflation, weak infrastructure, and policy inconsistency are addressed head-on, Nigeria risks squandering its potential to feed itself and become a regional agricultural powerhouse.
To fulfil the promise of the Renewed Hope Agenda, what’s needed is not just bold headlines or billion-naira projects, but consistent execution, political will, and grassroots accountability. Nigeria’s farmers have waited long enough.
