Campaigning for Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election formally gets underway on Wednesday, setting the stage for a contest likely to be shaped by the economy, the rising cost of living, insecurity and the strength of the opposition.
Africa’s most populous nation enters the election season after years of economic turbulence and persistent security challenges. President Bola Tinubu, who came to power in 2023, is seeking a second term after introducing sweeping economic reforms aimed at restructuring the country’s finances and attracting investment.
Among his most consequential decisions was the removal of the long-standing petrol subsidy, a policy that had kept fuel prices artificially low but placed a heavy burden on government finances. The move was welcomed by economists and investors as a necessary step toward reform, but it also triggered a sharp increase in living costs, weakened the naira and contributed to a severe cost-of-living crisis.
Inflation, which climbed to a record high of about 34 percent during Tinubu’s first term, has since eased significantly, reaching 15.4 percent in July. Despite the improvement, millions of Nigerians continue to struggle with high food, transport and housing costs, while poverty remains widespread.
The World Bank estimates that more than 60 percent of Nigerians are living below the poverty line, compared with about 40 percent in 2019, underscoring the depth of the country’s economic challenges.
Security is another major concern heading into the election. Nigeria continues to face multiple and overlapping conflicts, including jihadist insurgencies in the northeast, armed banditry across parts of the north and central regions, clashes between farmers and herders, and separatist tensions in the southeast.
Violence has intensified in several areas since 2024, particularly as armed banditry has expanded across northern and central Nigeria and militant activity has remained a persistent threat in Borno State, the epicentre of the country’s long-running jihadist insurgency.
Yet despite the economic and security pressures confronting the government, Tinubu’s path to re-election could be helped by a fragmented opposition. Rival parties and political figures have struggled to build a unified national coalition capable of presenting a clear alternative to the ruling All Progressives Congress.
For many voters, however, the election is likely to be decided less by political alliances than by everyday economic realities. The ability to afford food, fuel, transportation and other basic necessities is expected to remain at the heart of the campaign, while voters will also judge whether Tinubu’s reforms are beginning to deliver tangible improvements in their lives.
As campaigning begins, the central question for Nigerians is increasingly clear: can the government’s difficult economic reforms translate into improved living standards, greater security and broader prosperity before voters return to the polls?
