In a historic shift within Africa’s energy landscape, Nigeria long the continent’s largest importer of refined petroleum products has relinquished that title to South Africa. This development signals a critical transformation in regional trade dynamics, driven largely by the operational ramp-up of the Dangote Refinery, now the largest single-train refinery in the world.
Located on the outskirts of Lagos and costing an estimated $20 billion, the Dangote Refinery began large-scale production in 2024. With a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the facility is now steadily altering the continent’s crude oil trade by reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuels a paradox that had plagued the nation for decades despite its status as a top oil producer.
According to data from CITAC, an energy consultancy focused on African markets, Nigeria imported 3.1 million tons of refined petroleum products in Q1 2025 a sharp reduction compared to previous years. In contrast, South Africa imported 4.2 million tons in the same period, a figure that positions it as sub-Saharan Africa’s largest fuel importer.
“Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,” said Elitsa Georgieva, executive director at CITAC. “Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have been consistently highest in sub-Saharan Africa.”
A Paradigm Shift in Energy Independence
The implications for Nigeria are profound. For years, the country exported crude oil only to import refined petrol at high costs a model that eroded foreign reserves and placed immense fiscal strain on the government through fuel subsidies. Now, with Dangote’s plant absorbing increasing volumes of domestic crude, the need for foreign refined products is receding.
Nigeria is projected to import 6.4 million tons of refined products in 2025, less than half the volume forecasted for South Africa. This shift is not only expected to ease pressure on the naira and foreign exchange reserves but also strengthen the country’s trade balance and energy self-sufficiency.
South Africa’s Growing Import Burden
While Nigeria moves toward greater independence, South Africa finds itself increasingly reliant on external supply. The nation’s domestic refining industry has been in decline since 2020, with nearly half of its capacity shuttered due to ageing infrastructure, industrial accidents, and chronic underinvestment.
The closure of Sapref, the country’s largest refinery a joint venture between Shell Plc and BP Plc in 2022 marked a significant blow. Although the government acquired the facility in 2023 with plans to revive it, a concrete timeline for restarting operations remains absent.
As a result, over 60% of South Africa’s fuel demand is now met by imports, with global traders such as Glencore, Vitol, and Gunvor stepping in to fill the void. Gunvor was even shortlisted to acquire Shell’s downstream retail network in South Africa, underscoring foreign interest in the country’s fuel distribution infrastructure.
CITAC estimates South Africa will import approximately 15.5 million tons of refined products in 2025 nearly twice Kenya’s 8.9 million tons, and more than double Nigeria’s projected imports.
“South Africa’s infrastructure is mature, but its refining shortfall is now attracting foreign traders who can bridge the gap,” an industry executive familiar with recent trade developments said.
A Continent Reimagining Energy Sovereignty
The Dangote Refinery’s rise forms part of a broader African aspiration: to increase domestic refining capacity and reduce dependence on international fuel markets. Countries such as Uganda, Angola, and Mozambique are also pushing forward with refinery projects, though the gap between planning and operational output remains significant.
Dangote’s journey itself illustrates the challenges delayed timelines, ballooning costs, and logistical bottlenecks. Yet its eventual success stands as a landmark achievement for African industrialization, energy security, and economic autonomy.
The Road Ahead
For Nigeria, the benefits of reduced fuel imports are multi-fold from fiscal savings on subsidies to strengthened monetary stability. For South Africa, however, the growing reliance on foreign fuel imports, while ensuring short-term supply, exposes the nation to global price shocks, currency risks, and supply chain vulnerabilities.
As the continent’s energy dynamics continue to evolve, the emergence of new refining hubs like Dangote’s signals that Africa is no longer content to merely extract it is now gearing up to refine, retain value, and redefine its role in global energy trade.
