Government moves to align oil, exchange rate, inflation and revenue forecasts as EMT reviews economic outlook….
The federal government has approved the establishment of an inter-agency committee to align the macroeconomic assumptions guiding the country’s budget preparation and broader economic planning.
The committee will harmonise projections on crude oil prices and production, exchange rates, inflation and non-oil revenue currently used by fiscal and monetary authorities.
The decision was reached at a meeting of the Economic Management Team (EMT) in Abuja on Monday, chaired by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele.
A statement issued by the Ministry of Finance said the move followed a joint budget retreat and technical validation workshop, where inconsistent assumptions among government agencies were identified as one of the factors contributing to budget under-performance.
The ministry said differences in key economic projections by institutions responsible for fiscal and monetary policies had, at times, resulted in divergent expectations and weakened the reliability of government planning.
It added that the new committee would also address inconsistencies in the way key economic indicators are calculated and presented to government, external stakeholders and the public.
Oyedele said harmonising the figures would strengthen the credibility of the government’s economic plans and reduce unexpected deviations between projections and actual outcomes.
“Today’s decisions tighten the link between the numbers we plan with and the actual outturns,” the minister said.
“A single, harmonised set of assumptions across the fiscal and monetary authorities means fewer surprises in the budget and more credible planning for investors and all Nigerians.”
The EMT also reviewed recent developments in the economy, noting that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rose by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, representing the strongest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The team was further informed that Nigeria’s external reserves had climbed above $54 billion in early September, the highest level in nearly 18 years, based on data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The naira was also reported to have strengthened to its strongest level in about two years, trading around N1,300 to the dollar in early September.
The ministry said the EMT was also briefed on FTSE Russell’s decision to reclassify Nigeria from “unclassified” to “frontier market” status, effective from the opening of the market on September 21.
It added that public debt remains below 40 per cent of GDP, while Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook from Moody’s has improved from stable to positive.
According to the ministry, the team noted that Nigeria’s economy, measured in purchasing-power-parity terms, is valued at more than $2.2 trillion, highlighting the country’s potential to achieve a nominal GDP of $1 trillion by 2030.
The EMT also agreed to expand its terms of reference to cover macroeconomic performance reviews, closer fiscal and monetary coordination, monitoring of Renewed Hope Agenda priorities and periodic assessments of the federal government’s financing requirements.
The team is expected to meet monthly, with at least two strategic sector reviews to be conducted at each sitting.
To improve the consistency of official economic data, the Ministry of Finance has also been designated as the coordinating custodian for national economic information.
The ministry said line agencies would continue to be responsible for their respective datasets, which would serve as inputs for coordinated public releases.
The EMT also considered measures aimed at increasing agriculture’s contribution to Nigeria’s plan to build a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
The strategy focuses on reducing post-harvest losses, expanding processing and mechanisation, improving compliance with export standards and ensuring capital releases are made early enough to coincide with planting seasons.
The team also reviewed financing options for the sector, including plans to recapitalise the Bank of Agriculture and introduce a new credit facility for smallholder farmers.
Government is targeting an increase in agriculture’s share of private-sector credit to about 10 per cent by 2030.
The EMT further reviewed Nigeria’s preparations to host the Creative Africa Nexus (CANEX) in November 2026 and the Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF) in Lagos in November 2027.
The Ministry of Finance was tasked with coordinating funding and customs facilitation, alongside the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, which will develop a consolidated action plan with specific ministerial responsibilities.
