Vietnam has officially scrapped its long-standing two-child policy as the communist nation confronts a sharp decline in birthrates threatening its demographic and economic future.
State media announced on Wednesday that couples are now free to decide how many children to have and the spacing between births, marking a decisive break from decades of government-imposed family planning limits.
The policy promoting families with one or two children dates back to the 1960s in North Vietnam and was expanded across reunified Vietnam in the 1980s and 1990s, culminating in the first national family planning decree of 1988. Though enforcement varied, Communist Party members faced sanctions for exceeding limits.
Vietnam’s birthrate fell to a record low of 1.91 children per woman in 2024 — below the replacement level needed to sustain population growth.
Officials warn this downward trend could accelerate societal aging, create labor shortages, strain social welfare programs, and jeopardize the country’s ambitious economic development plans.
Urban centers like Ho Chi Minh City report even lower fertility rates, with the city’s rate dropping to 1.32 in 2023. Rising living costs are cited as a major barrier for young couples considering having children.
In response, some provinces have introduced incentives such as financial rewards, certificates of merit, and community bonuses to encourage larger families. For instance, women who have two children before age 35 may receive around 1 million dong (£28), while areas achieving sustained two-child rates are rewarded with up to 30 million dong.
Despite these efforts, birthrates continue to decline nationally, slipping from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 1.96 in 2023, reflecting a regional trend mirrored in neighboring countries like Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia. Japan recently reported its lowest-ever annual births in 2024, falling below 700,000.
Vietnam had briefly relaxed its two-child limit in 2003 but reinstated it in 2008. The government is also addressing a persistent gender imbalance driven by a cultural preference for sons.
The health ministry recently proposed tripling fines to $3,800 to combat illegal fetal gender selection. Although the birth sex ratio has improved, it remains skewed at 112 boys per 100 girls.
Vietnam’s move parallels shifts across Asia, including China’s end of the strict one-child policy in 2016 and its 2021 decision to allow up to three children per family.
However, China’s population declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, underscoring the regional demographic challenges facing these nations.
Vietnam’s bold policy reversal reflects growing urgency to reverse its demographic decline and secure sustainable growth in an increasingly aging society. The success of these new measures will be closely watched as other countries grapple with similar population shifts.
