Poland’s Presidential Runoff Exposes Deep Divide as Far Right Gains Ground

Poland’s presidential runoff this Sunday pits liberal, pro-European Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski against right-wing nationalist Karol Nawrocki in a closely fought race that could reshape the country’s future—and its role in Europe.

The contest has attracted international attention, with former U.S. President Donald Trump and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán backing Nawrocki as a champion of national sovereignty.

Trump hosted Nawrocki at Mar-a-Lago and hinted that U.S.-Polish military ties could strengthen under his leadership. Orbán echoed support at a CPAC event in Budapest.

Trzaskowski, meanwhile, argues that a pro-European leader would strengthen Poland’s global standing, especially amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

However, much of the spotlight has fallen on third-place candidate Sławomir Mentzen—a far-right libertarian whose 15% share in the first round now makes his voters decisive.

Both runoff candidates have courted his base, appearing on Mentzen’s YouTube channel to respond to his eight-point manifesto, which includes tax opposition, gun rights, and a rejection of NATO membership for Ukraine.

Nawrocki endorsed all eight points, including the controversial Ukraine stance, while Trzaskowski backed some but rejected anti-NATO and anti-LGBTQ+ positions.

Mentzen’s influence has shifted the campaign toward younger, anti-establishment voters and exposed fractures in Poland’s political right. His decision not to endorse either finalist—urging supporters to “vote your conscience”—has left the outcome uncertain.

Observers see the race as emblematic of broader European trends, with far-right forces gaining ground. “People are drawn to promises of a return to the past,” says Piotr Buras of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “They’re afraid of how fast society is changing.”

Sunday’s vote will decide more than a president—it may signal the trajectory of populism in Europe’s heartland