SBM Intelligence survey finds fuel prices now rank among Nigerians’ biggest concerns, with pressure strongest in the Southwest and South-South….
The debate over petrol prices is taking on a new political dimension ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general election, with a new voter sentiment survey showing that 67.4% of respondents want the petrol subsidy reinstated.
The finding is contained in the second wave of the Nigeria 2027 Voter Sentiment Tracker, published by geopolitical research firm SBM Intelligence under the title Nigeria 2027: A Narrower Race.
According to the report, only 19.2% of those surveyed supported the current approach to petrol pricing, highlighting the extent of public dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of fuel costs.
The survey also found that petrol has rapidly moved up the list of issues shaping public sentiment. The subject, which was not offered as an issue option in the first wave of the tracker, has now become the second-most cited national problem, accounting for 18.2% of responses.
The report further gave the government’s performance on petrol its lowest score among the issues assessed, with a rating of 1.69 out of 4.
SBM Intelligence said the findings point to the growing importance of fuel prices in how Nigerians assess economic conditions and government policies.
Survey covers six geopolitical zones
The findings were based on face-to-face interviews with 1,103 eligible voters across 12 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
The exercise covered all six geopolitical zones, with researchers conducting interviews in both urban and rural communities.
Respondents were reached in a variety of locations, including markets, schools, viewing centres and hotels, as part of the effort to capture views across different sections of the population.
However, SBM Intelligence cautioned that the results represent a snapshot of the views expressed by the people surveyed.
The research firm said the sampling frame was not adjusted for historical voter turnout, National Population Commission projections or voter registration figures from the Independent National Electoral Commission.
As a result, the findings should not be interpreted as a direct measure of the eventual size or composition of the electorate that will participate in the 2027 presidential election.
Fuel prices bite harder in some regions
The strength of concern over petrol varies considerably across Nigeria, with geography emerging as one of the major differences in the survey.
The Southwest recorded the highest level of concern, with petrol identified as the leading issue by 30.5% of respondents.
The South-South followed, with 29.1% naming petrol as their biggest concern.
The issue also featured prominently in the Northwest, where 24% of respondents identified petrol as their primary concern.
But the picture changes considerably in other parts of the country, where insecurity, debt and broader economic challenges occupy a larger share of public attention.
In the Southeast, insecurity dominated the responses at 62.6%, followed by debt and jobs at 7.5% each, while the economy accounted for 5.6%.
The Northcentral also recorded a strong focus on insecurity, which was cited by 47.5% of respondents. The economy followed at 26.5%, while jobs and debt accounted for 6.5% and 5.5%, respectively.
In the Northeast, debt emerged as the leading concern at 28.3%, followed by insecurity at 17.1%, health at 11.2% and corruption at 9.8%.
In the Northwest, insecurity narrowly led the list at 25%, followed by petrol at 24%, the economy at 16% and electricity at 15%.
Rural Nigerians show stronger concern over petrol
The survey also revealed a significant difference between rural and urban respondents.
While 32.4% of rural respondents identified petrol as their main concern, only 11.7% of urban respondents did so.
The issue also becomes more prominent with age.
Among respondents aged between 18 and 24, petrol was cited by 19.6%. The figure increased across older age groups, reaching 27.6% among respondents aged above 55.
The pattern suggests that the impact of fuel prices is being felt differently across demographic groups, particularly among people who may be more exposed to transportation and household cost pressures.
Petrol prices remain above N1,400 in major cities
The survey comes at a time when petrol prices remain elevated across several parts of the country.
Recent checks in Lagos found petrol selling at between N1,400 and N1,430 per litre, while prices in Abuja ranged from N1,400 to N1,450 per litre.
The sustained increase in pump prices has continued to generate criticism from opposition figures and organised labour, with the cost of transportation and its wider effect on household purchasing power becoming a major part of the debate.
Former Vice President and African Democratic Congress presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar has said he would restore the petrol subsidy if elected in 2027.
The Nigeria Labour Congress, led by Joe Ajaero, has also called for wage awards and other measures to cushion workers from the impact of rising transportation costs.
NMDPRA says it cannot determine pump prices
The debate has also placed renewed attention on the role of the petroleum regulator.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority said in September that it does not have the legal authority to determine petrol pump prices.
Rather than imposing prices, the regulator said it would intensify market surveillance and take action against suspected price-gouging.
The federal government, meanwhile, has continued to promote compressed natural gas as part of its response to high transportation costs.
President Bola Tinubu recently pointed to savings recorded through CNG-powered buses, saying commuters in Kaduna saved more than N3.5 billion in transportation costs during the first year of the programme.
With petrol now ranking among the most frequently cited concerns in the latest voter sentiment tracker, the cost of fuel is increasingly becoming intertwined with broader questions around household finances, transportation, inflation and the direction of economic policy ahead of the 2027 elections.
