Efforts by the Nigerian Government to ramp up daily oil production to over two million barrels have suffered another setback, as Nigeria’s crude output declined for the second consecutive month.
According to the latest figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), total daily oil production, including condensates, fell to 1.65 million barrels per day (mbpd) in May down from 1.68mbpd recorded in April.
Crude oil production specifically dropped from 1.48mbpd in April to 1.45mbpd in May, reversing the momentum gained in the previous month, when output had climbed from 1.40mbpd in March an encouraging sign at the time for the government’s ambitious 2.1mbpd production target.
The NUPRC report revealed that Nigeria’s combined crude and condensate output in May peaked at 1.81 million barrels per day, while the lowest daily figure was 1.61 million barrels per day. The average for the month stood at 1.657 million barrels per day, comprising 1.45mbpd of crude and 204,493 barrels per day of condensate.
Despite falling short of national targets, the Commission noted that the May average represents 97 percent of Nigeria’s OPEC production quota, which is set at 1.5mbpd.
The continued shortfall comes amid President Bola Tinubu’s charge to the newly appointed board of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) to significantly scale up oil output. The president set a production goal of 2 million barrels per day by 2027, and 3 million barrels per day by 2030. Additionally, he mandated the NNPC to grow gas production to 8 billion cubic feet per day by 2027, and 10 billion cubic feet by 2030.
He also tasked the company with increasing its stake in domestic refining, targeting 200,000 barrels per day of refined output by 2027, and 500,000 barrels per day by 2030.
Speaking during the board’s inauguration in May, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, disclosed that the company had commenced operational reviews and stakeholder consultations aimed at optimising performance. He noted that crude oil production had already improved from 1.5mbpd to 1.7mbpd within two months, with a goal of reaching 1.9mbpd by the end of the year.
“We will promise only what we can deliver and we will deliver on our promises,” Ojulari stated.
However, the latest figures suggest that sustained progress remains elusive.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, has repeatedly asserted that Nigeria has the capacity to produce up to 3 million barrels per day. In January 2025, crude output briefly rose to 1.538mbpd, exceeding the OPEC quota by about 39,000 barrels. Total daily production, including condensates, hit 1.74mbpd, up from 1.6mbpd in December 2024.
Yet, output fell again in February and has struggled to return to those January levels, casting doubt over the government’s ability to maintain consistent growth in production.
Nigeria’s failure to meet its OPEC quota has been a recurring issue, with the country falling short throughout 2022, 2023, and so far in 2024. The ongoing volatility in production continues to hinder the government’s revenue projections and threatens key investment and reform targets within the upstream oil sector.
