NMDPRA data shows domestic PMS supply also declined, while imports increased and Dangote Refinery remained a major source of petroleum products…..
Nigeria recorded a significant decline in petrol supply and consumption in July 2026, even as the country’s stock levels for key petroleum products improved, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The regulator’s latest monthly factsheet showed that average daily domestic supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, dropped by 21 per cent to 25.8 million litres per day (lpd) in July, compared with 32.5 million lpd recorded in June.
Petrol consumption declined at an even faster pace, falling 25 per cent from 47.4 million lpd to 35.7 million lpd during the month.
Despite the reduction in both supply and demand, petrol stock cover improved, suggesting that available inventories could support the market for a longer period.
NMDPRA data showed that total daily PMS receipts declined by 10 per cent, from 50.6 million lpd in June to 45.5 million lpd in July.
The decline was largely driven by weaker domestic supply, which fell by 6.7 million litres per day.
Petrol imports, however, moved in the opposite direction, rising by 9 per cent from 18.1 million lpd to 19.7 million lpd.
The figures point to a mixed supply picture, with lower domestic receipts partly offset by increased reliance on imported petrol.
Meanwhile, petrol stock sufficiency increased from 19.7 days in June to 22.4 days in July, representing a 14 per cent improvement.
The higher inventory cover provides a larger buffer for the downstream market in the event of supply disruptions or unexpected increases in demand.
The diesel market recorded a notable increase in receipts during the month.
Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) receipts jumped 46 per cent from 16.2 million lpd in June to 23.6 million lpd in July.
The increase was largely driven by imports, which rose from zero in June to 7.9 million lpd in July.
Domestic AGO supply, on the other hand, slipped by 3 per cent to 15.7 million lpd.
Diesel consumption also weakened, falling 8 per cent from 16 million lpd in June to 14.7 million lpd in July.
Even with lower demand, diesel inventories strengthened significantly. Stock sufficiency increased from 37.1 days to 46.5 days, representing a 25 per cent rise.
The aviation fuel market recorded one of the sharpest declines among the products tracked by the regulator.
Consumption of Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK) fell by 41 per cent, dropping from 2.9 million lpd in June to 1.7 million lpd in July.
ATK receipts also declined by 24 per cent, from 2.5 million lpd to 1.9 million lpd.
The figures point to a substantial month-on-month reduction in activity in the aviation fuel market.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) was one of the few major petroleum products to record stronger demand during the period.
LPG consumption increased by 7 per cent, rising from 4.1 million litres per day to 4.4 million litres per day.
Receipts also increased by 4 per cent, from 5.1 kilotonnes per day to 5.3 kilotonnes per day.
Domestic LPG supply rose by 22 per cent, reaching 4.4 kilotonnes per day from 3.6 kilotonnes previously.
Imports, however, fell by 40 per cent, declining from 1.5 kilotonnes per day to 0.9 kilotonnes.
The figures suggest that increased domestic supply helped offset the reduction in imported LPG during the month.
Dangote Refinery maintains strong output
The NMDPRA data also highlighted the contribution of the Dangote Refinery to Nigeria’s petroleum products market in July.
The refinery produced an average of 25.9 million litres of PMS per day, while domestic receipts stood at 25.8 million lpd.
It exported approximately 3.4 million lpd of petrol and ended the month with 446.1 million litres of PMS in stock.
The refinery’s diesel production averaged 19.1 million lpd. Domestic receipts stood at 15.7 million lpd, while exports reached 11 million lpd.
Its closing AGO stock was reported at 162.3 million litres.
For aviation fuel, Dangote Refinery produced 15.6 million lpd in July. Domestic receipts were 1.9 million lpd, while exports reached 11.6 million lpd, leaving a closing stock of 217.4 million litres.
The July downstream figures come against the backdrop of efforts to increase Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity and improve crude supply to local refineries.
Nigeria’s crude production remained above 1.5 million barrels per day for the third consecutive month in July, although output was lower than the previous month, according to data from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The country had also recorded an increase in crude production earlier in the year, with average output reaching 1.530 million barrels per day in May.
Meanwhile, domestic crude supplies to local refineries continued to improve. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported that local refineries received 53.7 million barrels of crude between April and June 2026, representing 97.4 per cent of the crude allocated for domestic refining during the quarter.
The latest data comes as Nigeria continues to pursue greater energy security by expanding domestic refining, increasing crude production and strengthening local petroleum product supply.
NUPRC has estimated the country’s petroleum reserves at 37.01 billion barrels of crude oil and condensate, alongside 215.19 trillion cubic feet of natural gas as of January 1, 2026.
The Federal Government and industry operators are also pursuing ambitious targets for expanding both oil and gas production.
Against this backdrop, the July figures highlight a changing downstream market: petrol consumption and domestic supply declined sharply, but inventories strengthened, imports increased and domestic refining continued to play a major role in meeting the country’s petroleum needs.
