Nigeria produced 402.86 million barrels between January and September 2026, with rising global oil prices pushing the estimated gross value of output to $39.15bn……
Nigeria’s crude oil production was valued at approximately N52.12tn between January and September 2026, as higher international oil prices boosted the estimated worth of output during the nine-month period.
Calculations based on monthly production data, prevailing Bonny Light crude prices and an exchange rate of N1,331 to the dollar put the value of the country’s crude oil output at about $39.15bn.
Data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that the estimated production volume was derived by multiplying each month’s average daily crude oil output by the number of days in that month, while the corresponding dollar value was calculated using the prevailing monthly crude oil price.
The figures cover crude oil production alone and exclude condensate and natural gas.
A breakdown of the estimates showed that Nigeria produced 45.26 million barrels in January, 36.68 million in February, 42.78 million in March and 44.70 million in April.
Output subsequently rose to 47.43 million barrels in May before reaching 46.80 million in June, 46.81 million in July, 46.50 million in August and 45.90 million in September.
The monthly volumes amounted to 402.86 million barrels, or approximately 403 million barrels over the period.
The estimates were based on average daily production rates ranging from 1.31 million barrels in February to 1.56 million barrels in June.
Oil prices drive value of output
The estimated value of production varied considerably from month to month, reflecting fluctuations in international crude oil prices.
In January, Nigeria’s 45.26 million barrels of output, valued at $68.05 per barrel, amounted to approximately $3.08bn. February’s production was worth about $2.65bn at an average price of $72.33 per barrel.
The value increased to $4.54bn in March as Bonny Light crude rose to $106.09 per barrel, before reaching a nine-month high of $5.66bn in April, when the benchmark averaged $126.71 per barrel.
May’s output was valued at $5.34bn at $112.63 per barrel, while June recorded $4.13bn as the average price fell to $88.24.
The estimated value declined further to $3.97bn in July, when crude traded at $84.81 per barrel, before recovering to $4.40bn in August and $5.38bn in September.
The nine monthly estimates produced a combined value of approximately $39.15bn, equivalent to N52.11tn at the applied exchange rate.
On a naira basis, the estimated value stood at N4.10tn in January, N3.53tn in February, N6.04tn in March and N7.54tn in April.
May’s output was valued at N7.11tn, followed by N5.50tn in June, N5.28tn in July, N5.86tn in August and N7.16tn in September.
April recorded the highest estimated value during the period, while February had the lowest.
Middle East tensions push crude prices higher
The increase in the estimated value of Nigeria’s crude oil output coincided with sharp movements in global oil prices amid tensions involving the United States and Iran.
Bonny Light crude rose from $68.05 per barrel in January to $72.33 in February before climbing to $106.09 in March as the crisis escalated.
Prices peaked at $126.71 per barrel in April and eased to $112.63 in May before dropping to $88.24 in June following a ceasefire agreement between Tehran and Washington.
Crude prices fell further to $84.81 per barrel in July but recovered to $94.64 in August and $117.12 in September as the ceasefire agreement collapsed.
The price movements increased the estimated gross value of Nigeria’s production, although the figures do not represent the actual revenue received by the Federal Government.
Instead, they reflect the estimated market value of crude produced by all operators, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, international oil companies and indigenous producers.
The calculations do not account for production costs, royalties, taxes, crude allocations, domestic consumption, export volumes or other deductions that affect the revenue ultimately realised by the government and oil producers.
Output remains below 2026 budget benchmark
Nigeria’s 2026 budget is based on crude oil production of 1.8 million barrels per day, a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.
The estimated daily production rates used in the January-to-September calculations remained below the budget’s 1.8 million-barrel target throughout the period.
However, the rise in international crude prices above the budget benchmark increased the estimated value of the country’s oil output, highlighting the potential revenue benefits of higher prices even as production remained below the government’s target.
The extent to which the price gains translate into additional government revenue will depend on actual production and sales, the volume of crude exported, fiscal terms and the costs and deductions associated with oil operations.
