The world is heading towards a dangerous climate future, with global temperatures projected to rise by as much as 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, even if governments fulfil their latest climate pledges, the United Nations has warned.
The warning comes as greenhouse gas emissions remain near record highs, exposing a widening gap between international climate commitments and the urgent action needed to slow global warming.
In its annual Emissions Gap Report, the United Nations Environment Programme said existing national climate plans remain insufficient to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which seeks to keep global warming well below two degrees Celsius while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees.
The report warns that if governments rely solely on policies already in place, global temperatures could rise by approximately 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, intensifying the risks of deadly heatwaves, devastating floods, wildfires and rising sea levels.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called for immediate and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, warning that the consequences of climate inaction are already costing lives, damaging economies and worsening inequality, particularly for vulnerable communities.
Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 remained broadly in line with record levels recorded in 2024, while carbon emissions from burning coal, oil and gas edged higher.
NO COUNTRY IMMUNE
Scientists warn that every additional fraction of a degree of warming increases the severity of extreme weather and raises the risk of irreversible environmental damage, including coral reef destruction and permafrost melting.
The planet has already warmed by approximately 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, bringing the internationally agreed 1.5-degree threshold increasingly within reach.
The report identifies the G20 economies as responsible for roughly three-quarters of global emissions, underscoring the importance of stronger action by the world’s largest polluters.
Preliminary 2025 figures showed emissions rising in the United States, China and Indonesia, while India, Russia and the European Union recorded declines.
The United States registered the largest increase among the major emitters, driven by higher electricity demand and a rebound in coal-fired power generation.
The report also points to the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revisions to historical emissions estimates as factors contributing to a less favourable warming outlook.
URGENT ACTION NEEDED
Although limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius remains technically possible under certain scenarios, the report says it would require immediate and sustained emissions cuts of about six per cent annually through 2035, alongside the removal of substantial amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere later this century.
Climate experts warn that such reductions would demand far more ambitious policies than governments have so far demonstrated, particularly through a rapid shift away from fossil fuels.
The findings are expected to intensify pressure on world leaders ahead of the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Türkiye, scheduled for November 9 to 20, where countries will face renewed calls to strengthen their climate commitments.
Developing nations most vulnerable to climate change have repeatedly criticised wealthier, high-emitting countries for failing to deliver action at the scale required.
The UN maintains that the prospect of temporarily exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold must not become an excuse for surrender. Instead, it says immediate action remains essential to limit further warming and reduce the devastating consequences for people and the planet.
