A new voter intention survey by Yiaga Africa has revealed growing interest in Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, but also deep concerns over insecurity, electoral trust and the ability of voters to participate freely.
The organisation’s third National Voter Intention Survey, NVIS 3.0, found that 84 per cent of respondents were likely or very likely to vote in 2027.
However, only 41 per cent of those expressing an intention to vote said they were firmly committed to participating, highlighting a significant gap between voter interest and actual commitment.
The survey, conducted in September 2026, covered 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Yiaga Africa said 2,066 respondents were reached by telephone, while 404 were interviewed face-to-face, particularly in rural communities, to ensure broader representation.
Voter intention has risen steadily across the three rounds of the survey, from 77 per cent in the first edition to 73 per cent in the second, before climbing to 84 per cent in the latest assessment.
However, the proportion of respondents who described themselves as very likely to vote has continued to decline, falling from 52 per cent in the first survey to 48 per cent and then 47 per cent.
Yiaga Africa said the figures suggest that while more Nigerians are expressing interest in voting, certainty about turning up on election day remains fragile.
The survey also found that 44 per cent of those who intend to vote have yet to decide which candidate they would support, leaving a sizeable pool of undecided voters ahead of the election.
Insecurity remains major concern
Security emerged as one of the biggest threats to participation, with 61 per cent of respondents saying fear of violence could prevent them from voting.
The concern was even higher in the North-East, where 78 per cent identified violence as a potential barrier.
Overall, 82 per cent of respondents said they were very concerned that insecurity could affect the conduct of the elections.
Only 48 per cent expressed confidence that security agencies would adequately protect voters and their votes.
Improved security was also identified as the strongest factor that could encourage participation, with 83 per cent of respondents citing it as a major motivation.
Better logistics was identified by 38 per cent, while 20 per cent said stronger candidates could encourage them to vote.
Confidence in INEC declines
Public confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has also fallen sharply.
Only 34 per cent of respondents said they had confidence in the electoral body, compared with 45 per cent recorded in each of the first two surveys.
Yiaga Africa said confidence was particularly weak in some regions, reflecting wider concerns about the credibility and effectiveness of electoral institutions.
Interestingly, respondents expressed greater confidence in electoral technology than in INEC itself.
Forty-nine per cent said they trusted technologies used for accreditation and electronic transmission of results, including the IReV platform.
Yiaga Africa said the findings suggest that public trust in election technology is beginning to outpace confidence in the institution responsible for conducting the polls.
Judiciary also faces trust deficit
Confidence in the judiciary’s handling of post-election disputes was similarly low.
Sixty-three per cent of respondents said they lacked confidence that electoral disputes would be resolved fairly and effectively after the 2027 polls.
The South-South recorded the highest level of distrust, with 81 per cent expressing reservations about the judiciary’s ability to handle electoral disputes.
Desire for change drives voter interest
The survey found that the desire for a change in leadership is the leading motivation for Nigerians intending to vote.
Forty-nine per cent of respondents cited leadership change as their main reason for participating, while 20 per cent identified civic responsibility and 16 per cent pointed to specific candidates.
Yiaga Africa said the findings indicate that political parties and candidates may not yet be the primary drivers of voter mobilisation, with the demand for change appearing to have greater influence.
Vote buying also remains a concern.
Nineteen per cent of respondents said they had received money as an incentive to vote for a particular candidate in an election.
The figure rose to 32 per cent in the North-West, while 24 per cent of young respondents reported having experienced financial inducement.
Awareness of electoral reforms rises
Awareness of Nigeria’s electoral reform process has increased significantly.
Only 24 per cent of respondents were aware of the reforms during the first survey in December. That figure rose to 37 per cent in March and reached 62 per cent in the latest survey.
Yiaga Africa linked the increase to growing public awareness following the passage of the 2026 Electoral Act, including changes relating to voter accreditation and electronic transmission of results.
Young voters show weaker participation intent
Despite their large presence in Nigeria’s electorate, younger Nigerians recorded weaker intentions to vote than older respondents.
Only 40 per cent of respondents in the younger age group indicated that they were likely to vote, compared with 64 per cent among those aged 61 and above.
A gender gap was also recorded, with 65 per cent of men indicating an intention to vote compared with 57 per cent of women.
INEC outlines preparations
Responding during a panel session, INEC Director of Voter Education and Publicity, Victoria Eta-Messi, acknowledged the concerns raised by the survey while highlighting efforts to improve the electoral process ahead of 2027.
She said the commission was strengthening personnel training, logistics and infrastructure while reviewing lessons from recent elections.
Eta-Messi pointed to the recently concluded Osun election as an example of improvements in the deployment of personnel and electoral materials.
She said INEC was also engaging transport unions to address logistical challenges that have affected the timely movement of election officials and materials in previous polls.
On technology, the commission said digital tools would be deployed with appropriate human oversight to ensure accountability and prevent technical processes from operating without adequate safeguards.
INEC also stressed the need for stronger grassroots mobilisation, particularly in rural communities where a significant proportion of the electorate resides.
The commission said it was working with organisations, including the National Orientation Agency, to strengthen voter education and reach more Nigerians ahead of the 2027 elections.
