Rising living costs, weak income growth threaten household welfare despite macroeconomic reforms
Nigeria’s poverty burden is projected to deepen significantly over the next two years, with as many as 141 million Nigerians about 62 per cent of the population expected to be living below the poverty line by 2026, according to a new report by global consulting firm PwC.
The projection is contained in PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026, titled “Turning macroeconomic stability into sustainable growth,” which paints a sobering picture of household welfare amid ongoing economic adjustments.
PwC noted that while recent policy measures have helped stabilise key macroeconomic indicators, slow growth in real incomes combined with persistently high living costs is likely to push millions more Nigerians into poverty.
The report estimates that income growth for most households will remain too weak in the near term to counter rising prices, as inflation continues to erode purchasing power across the economy.
“Poverty is projected to rise to 62 per cent, representing about 141 million people by 2026,” PwC stated, attributing the outlook to subdued real income growth and lingering inflationary pressures.
Although inflation is expected to moderate gradually, the firm cautioned that structural cost challenges including high energy prices, transportation expenses, and exchange-rate pass-through effects will continue to limit meaningful improvements in affordability for households.
PwC highlighted that low-income Nigerians are the most exposed, largely due to consumption patterns. The report noted that food accounts for as much as 70 per cent of total household spending among poorer segments of the population, making them particularly vulnerable to food price increases.
With food inflation remaining elevated, even modest price shocks can have outsized effects on household welfare, worsening poverty levels and reducing resilience.
The report warned that rising poverty poses serious risks to Nigeria’s broader economic outlook, including weaker domestic consumption, constrained productivity growth, and increased pressure on public finances as more citizens struggle to meet basic needs.
PwC’s findings align closely with recent assessments by the World Bank, which reported a sharp rise in the number of Nigerians living in poverty from about 81 million in 2019 to roughly 139 million in 2025. Earlier estimates showed approximately 115 million people living in poverty in 2023, rising to around 129 million in 2024, indicating that about 14 million Nigerians slipped into poverty within a single year.
Both PwC and the World Bank stressed that reversing the trend will require targeted and sustained interventions, including job creation, productivity-enhancing reforms, and well-designed social protection programmes.
Without such measures, the institutions warned, rising poverty could continue to undermine economic growth, weaken consumer demand, and intensify fiscal pressures on government resources.
