The Opta Supercomputer continues to project an Arsenal victory in the Premier League title race, even with only 12 fixtures remaining in the campaign. Mikel Arteta’s squad faced a challenging hurdle on Thursday night as they concluded Game Week 24 with a -1-1 draw against Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium. Although Noni Madueke gave the Gunners the lead with a second-half header, the hosts responded vigorously, securing a point through Keane Lewis-Potter’s equalizing effort.
Despite dropping two points in West London, the statistical model significantly favors the North London side to secure their first league crown since the “Invincibles” season of 2003/2004. Opta’s latest simulations assign Arsenal a commanding 85.11% probability of finishing the season as champions. The Gunners currently maintain a four-point advantage over their closest rivals, Manchester City, who ramped up the pressure with a decisive 3-0 victory over Fulham at the Etihad Stadium earlier in the week.
The defending champions, Manchester City, saw their title retention hopes calculated at 12.57% following their midweek success. Meanwhile, Aston Villa remains a mathematical contender with a 2.26% chance of staging a late-season upset. The statistical outlook for other traditional powerhouses appears much bleaker, as both Liverpool and Chelsea hold a marginal 0.02% probability of climbing to the top of the standings by May.
Arsenal must now navigate a high-stakes final stretch to convert these favorable percentages into silverware. With Manchester City finding their clinical form at the right moment, the margin for error has narrowed for Arteta’s men. Fans and analysts alike will closely monitor the upcoming rounds to see if the Supercomputer’s confidence in the Gunners remains steadfast or if the momentum shifts back toward the blue half of Manchester.
