The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025, trimming it slightly as fresh trade uncertainties and output changes by key producers cast shadows over the market.
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released in April, the oil cartel projected demand would rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year a downgrade from the previous estimate of 1.4 million bpd.
The group pointed to renewed pressure on global trade, including the effects of U.S. tariffs, as a key factor affecting its outlook. While OPEC noted that the global economy had shown stable growth at the start of the year, it flagged trade-related issues as a source of rising short-term uncertainty.
“Recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook,” the organization stated.
At the same time, OPEC’s basket of 12 crude blends saw a notable dip in price, falling to $66.25 per barrel on Monday, compared to $70.85 just three days earlier, reflecting growing concerns over market volatility.
Production Adjustments Underway as OPEC+ Eyes Stability
Meanwhile, production levels within the broader OPEC+ alliance, which includes major producers like Russia, recorded a marginal decline in March. According to the MOMR, output dipped by 37,000 bpd, bringing total production down to 41.02 million bpd. The drop was mainly driven by lower output from Nigeria and Iraq.
This decline follows earlier voluntary cuts initiated by eight OPEC+ countries Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman who met virtually on April 3 to assess current market conditions.
These countries reaffirmed their decision to gradually unwind a collective 2.2 million bpd voluntary cut, originally implemented in 2023. Beginning April 1, 2025, a phased return of 411,000 bpd was set in motion, covering three months of incremental output increases.
However, OPEC+ made it clear that the plan remains flexible. The phased increases could be paused or reversed, depending on evolving demand, price trends, and geopolitical developments.
Next Steps for the Oil Coalition
The alliance is scheduled to reconvene on May 5 to determine production levels for June, signaling a continued cautious approach as it navigates unpredictable market terrain.
OPEC reiterated that the current adjustment strategy is designed to maintain market stability and offer member nations room to compensate for previous overproduction or shortfalls.
As oil prices wobble under the weight of global economic uncertainty and shifting trade policies, all eyes remain on how producers will manage supply in the months ahead — especially with U.S. tariffs and global demand still very much in flux.
