Nigeria’s expenditure on imported petrol fell sharply in the first quarter of 2025, plunging to ₦1.76 trillion a dramatic 54% decrease from the ₦3.81 trillion recorded during the same period in 2024.
The figures, released in the latest foreign trade report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), mark a significant reversal in a trend that had seen petrol imports climb steadily over the past five years.
This Q1 2025 bill also represents a 47% decline from the ₦3.3 trillion spent on petrol imports in the previous quarter (Q4 2024).
Dangote Refinery Alters the Landscape
The sharp drop is largely attributed to the increased domestic supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has been steadily scaling up its operations. With an installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the privately owned facility is already operating at approximately 85% capacity, producing over 550,000 barrels per day.
Although still short of its full potential, the refinery has injected a substantial volume of refined products into the local market, reducing Nigeria’s reliance on foreign petrol and contributing to a drop in retail prices reaching as low as ₦860 per litre in parts of Lagos.
A Structural Shift in Energy Trade
The NBS report suggests Nigeria may be entering a new phase in its petroleum trade. After decades of dependence on imported refined products largely due to the collapse of state-owned refineries this marks one of the clearest signs yet of domestic refining beginning to fill the gap.
A five-year look at Q1 petrol import data underscores the shift:
- Q1 2020: ₦732 billion
- Q1 2021: ₦1.29 trillion
- Q1 2022: ₦2.69 trillion
- Q1 2023: ₦2.03 trillion
- Q1 2024: ₦3.81 trillion (peak)
- Q1 2025: ₦1.76 trillion
This drop returns Nigeria’s import levels to pre-2022 figures, suggesting a real and growing capacity for local refining.
Regional Trade Still Relevant
Despite the overall decline, petrol remains a dominant import commodity within regional trade flows, particularly from the ECOWAS subregion. According to the report, petrol accounted for ₦89.18 billion or 44.51% of Nigeria’s total imports from ECOWAS countries in Q1 2025.
Petrol also made up:
- 41.86% of Nigeria’s total imports from West Africa
- 11.63% of all imports from across the African continent
Other key petroleum-based imports from ECOWAS include:
- Gas oil: ₦23.15 billion (11.55%)
- Petroleum bitumen: ₦20.58 billion (10.27%)
This underscores the reality that, while local refining is expanding, gaps in supply still exist particularly for other refined products and byproducts that are yet to be fully produced domestically.
Operational Challenges and Government Response
In March 2025, the Dangote Refinery temporarily suspended naira-based sales of petrol, citing difficulties stemming from foreign exchange constraints. The refinery receives naira from local sales but relies on dollar-denominated crude oil, creating a mismatch in revenue and procurement cycles.
The federal government has since stepped in to mediate a resolution around the naira-for-crude agreement, enabling the refinery to continue supplying the domestic market without prolonged disruption.
Petrol Still Among Nigeria’s Top Imports
Despite the progress, petrol remains one of the top five imported commodities in Q1 2025, alongside:
- Gas oil
- Crude petroleum oils
- Cane sugar for refineries
- Durum wheat
This continued ranking reflects both the depth of Nigeria’s fuel demand and the time it may take before local refining fully displaces imports.
