Production averages 1.65mbpd as government revises assumptions for 2026 budget
Nigeria’s average crude oil production, including condensate, recorded a year-on-year increase in 2025 but remained below the Federal Government’s budget target, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Figures released by the upstream regulator show that Nigeria produced an average of 1.652 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first eleven months of 2025, compared to 1.544 million bpd recorded during the same period in 2024. The increase represents a 7 per cent growth in output year-on-year.
Despite the improvement, the country failed to meet its 2025 budget benchmark of 2.06 million bpd within the review period. Nigeria also missed other key fiscal assumptions, including the oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel and the exchange rate projection of ₦1,400 to the dollar.
On a month-on-month basis, crude oil production showed only a marginal uptick. Output in November 2025 averaged 1.599 million bpd, slightly higher than the 1.597 million bpd recorded in October 2025.
Industry data indicate that the shortfall in production and pricing assumptions influenced the Federal Government’s decision to adopt more conservative benchmarks in the 2026 fiscal framework.
While the government had initially set an ambitious crude oil production target of 2.06 million bpd, the revised outlook for 2026 pegs production at 1.84 million barrels per day, alongside a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel and an average exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar.
Presenting the 2026 budget to the National Assembly, President Bola Tinubu said the fiscal plan is anchored on consolidation, resilience, and inclusive growth.
“The 2026 Budget is themed: Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” the President said. “It reflects our determination to lock in macroeconomic stability, deepen competitiveness, and ensure that growth translates into decent jobs, rising incomes, and a better quality of life for every Nigerian.”
President Tinubu noted that oil output has shown signs of recovery, driven by improved security conditions, deployment of technology, and ongoing sector reforms, while non-oil revenues have expanded on the back of enhanced tax administration.
He also said investor confidence is gradually returning, citing renewed capital inflows, improved access to project financing, and stronger private-sector participation.
According to the President, Nigeria’s external reserves climbed to a seven-year high of approximately $47 billion as of last month, providing over 10 months of import cover and strengthening the country’s buffer against external economic shocks.
