Food prices decline sharply as new methodology reshapes inflation tracking, with analysts watching February MPC decision closely….
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated slightly to 15.1 percent in January 2026, down from 15.15 percent recorded in December 2025, according to new data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The latest figures come as policymakers prepare for the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria, scheduled to hold between February 23 and 24, 2026.
The statistics agency noted that the January headline inflation figure represents a marginal decline of 0.05 percentage points compared to December 2025. On a year-on-year basis, inflation dropped significantly by 12.51 percentage points from the 27.61 percent recorded in January 2025.
Month-on-month, headline inflation stood at 2.88 percent, compared to 0.54 percent in December, indicating a slower increase in the general price level.
The NBS said the latest inflation figures were compiled using its newly adopted methodology, introduced in the previous release, which it explained provides a more accurate reflection of prevailing market prices and consumer realities.
Food inflation, which carries the largest weight in Nigeria’s consumer price basket, recorded a sharp slowdown in January. On a year-on-year basis, food inflation fell to 8.89 percent, a steep drop of 20.73 percentage points from 29.63 percent in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation stood at 6.02 percent, compared with 0.36 percent recorded in December 2025.
The NBS attributed the decline to falling prices across several major food categories, including water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soybeans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava tubers and cowpeas, among others.
The 12-month average food inflation rate also moderated significantly, easing to 20.29 percent in January 2026 from 38.47 percent recorded in the corresponding period last year, reflecting a drop of 18.18 percentage points.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy costs, stood at 17.72 percent year-on-year in January 2026, down from 25.27 percent in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation slowed to 1.69 percent from 0.58 percent recorded in December.
The 12-month average core inflation rate also declined to 22.84 percent from 27.24 percent in January 2025.
In urban areas, inflation dropped to 15.36 percent year-on-year from 29.45 percent recorded in January 2025, while month-on-month urban inflation stood at 2.72 percent. However, the 12-month average urban inflation rate edged higher to 22.30 percent.
In rural areas, inflation came in at 14.44 percent year-on-year, compared to 25.04 percent a year earlier. Month-on-month rural inflation stood at 3.29 percent, while the 12-month average eased to 21.03 percent from 30.79 percent recorded in January 2025.
The latest inflation data is expected to shape expectations ahead of the Central Bank’s policy meeting later in February, where interest rate direction and broader monetary policy stance will likely be influenced by the continued moderation in price pressures.
