Nigeria’s crude oil output has experienced its third decline within the first five months of 2025, dropping by 32,759 barrels per day (bpd), signaling persistent challenges in addressing investment shortfalls, pipeline vandalism, and theft.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reveal a downward trend in production, with figures falling to 1.47 million bpd in February, dipping further to 1.4 million bpd in March, and then settling at 1.45 million bpd in May.
Production has been volatile this year, starting at 1.539 million bpd in January, dropping to 1.465 million bpd in February, reaching a low of 1.401 million bpd in March, rebounding to 1.486 million bpd in April, before declining again in May.
This inconsistent performance has meant Nigeria has missed its crude oil production quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for four consecutive months following its achievement of the target in December 2024 and January 2025.
When factoring in both blended and unblended condensates, Nigeria’s total production in May reached 1.66 million bpd, according to NUPRC. However, OPEC does not include condensates in its quota calculations for member countries.
The regulator noted that May’s combined crude oil and condensate output fluctuated between a low of 1.61 million bpd and a peak of 1.81 million bpd. The daily average for the month stood at 1,657,435 barrels, comprising 1,452,941 barrels of crude oil and 204,493 barrels of condensate. This average crude oil production represented 97% of Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd.
Speaking on the situation, Heineken Lokpobiri, Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, highlighted ongoing government efforts to attract further investment to the sector. The federal government is currently engaged in talks with Yinson Offshore Production to expand offshore operations.
Minister Lokpobiri said, “I recently met with Flemming Grønnegaard, CEO of Yinson Offshore Production, and we had productive discussions focused on collaborative efforts to enhance production capacity, which is a critical element of our strategic plan to increase national oil output.”
He also emphasized Yinson’s commitment to environmental sustainability, noting the company’s zero-emission FPSO initiative aligns with Nigeria’s national goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2030.
Industry experts, however, remain cautious. Jide Pratt, Chief Operating Officer of Aiona and country manager for Tradegrid, commented, “Nigeria is taking two steps forward and two steps back. There is a clear need for more private sector involvement and balanced regulation to unlock the sector’s full potential.”
Pratt also pointed out the competitive investment landscape in the region, citing how countries like Angola and Uganda are successfully attracting petroleum sector investments, a trend Nigeria must respond to if it is to regain momentum.
