Nigeria and many other developing economies underperformed in global trade and digital participation during the first quarter of 2025, according to the July 2025 Global Trade Update released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The report reveals that while overall global trade showed modest growth in Q1, it was primarily driven by developed economies, especially the United States and the European Union. In contrast, developing countries including Nigeria saw a decline in import activity, reversing the trend of stronger performance seen in previous years.
“Developed countries’ trade increased more than developing countries’ in Q1 2025,” the report said, attributing the growth to surging U.S. imports and strong EU exports.
UNCTAD highlighted that this shift diverges from trade patterns observed over the past year, during which developing nations outpaced developed ones in export growth.
The downturn was also evident in South–South trade (commerce between developing countries), which fell below average during the quarter. Although trade between developing nations remained relatively resilient when viewed across a 12-month period, excluding East Asian economies, the figures show a noticeable contraction in Q1.
Despite these regional disparities, UNCTAD estimates that global trade grew by as much as $300 billion in the first half of 2025, mostly driven by demand from advanced economies.
Digital Divide Widens: Developing Countries Miss Out on Online Economy
Beyond trade, the report paints a concerning picture of digital exclusion in low-income countries. According to UNCTAD, the global economy is increasingly dominated by digital platforms, yet limited internet access and infrastructure in many developing regions are locking millions out of online markets.
“Seven of the world’s ten most valuable companies are digital giants like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, and Meta,” the report stated. “These firms now control vast segments of the digital space from e-commerce and cloud services to AI and online advertising.”
UNCTAD warned that without fairer market conditions, stronger connectivity, and improved regulatory frameworks, developing countries risk being sidelined in the data-driven global economy.
Nigeria’s own regulatory actions were cited as an example of rising scrutiny. The report referenced recent sanctions imposed by Nigeria’s Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) and the Nigerian Data Protection Commission, which fined Facebook approximately $220 million for practices deemed harmful to Nigerian users.
Looking Ahead: Trade Outlook Clouded by Uncertainty
While Q1 brought some gains in global trade, UNCTAD cautioned that ongoing policy instability and rising geopolitical tensions could weigh on performance in the months to come. It also projected a potential slowdown in global economic growth during the second half of 2025, which may further temper international trade volumes.
