Think tank warns that late transmission of key fiscal document could undermine legislative scrutiny and weaken budget credibility.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has raised concerns over the delayed submission of Nigeria’s 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), warning that the lag could compromise parliamentary oversight and reduce confidence in the country’s budget process.
In a policy brief sent to the media on Sunday, CPPE’s Director and CEO, Muda Yusuf, emphasized that the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) requires the MTEF to be sent to the National Assembly at least four months before the start of a new fiscal year.
“Delayed presentation of the 2026–2028 MTEF would significantly constrain the diligence of deliberations because of the limitation of time,” the brief stated. Yusuf said compliance with the FRA is crucial for fiscal governance, transparency, and predictable financial planning.
Cautious Assumptions, But Gaps Remain
CPPE welcomed the adoption of more cautious revenue and expenditure assumptions in the new MTEF, noting that they provide a stronger foundation for sustainable fiscal outcomes.
The Federal Executive Council (FEC) earlier approved an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) for 2026, but the MTEF uses a more conservative 1.8 mbpd for budgeting purposes. The Council also set an oil price of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512 per dollar for the planning period.
“These adjustments strengthen the foundation for improved budget credibility. However, they do not go far enough, particularly concerning crude oil price and production assumptions,” the CPPE brief added. The think tank stressed that these benchmarks must accurately reflect Nigeria’s real economic operating environment.
Revenue Projections and Budget Outlook
During the week, the FEC formally approved the 2026–2028 MTEF, which outlines the country’s revenue projections, macroeconomic assumptions, and spending priorities for the next three years.
Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu, said the government expects total revenue inflows of N34.33 trillion in 2026, including N4.98 trillion from government-owned enterprises. He explained that the exchange rate assumption reflects anticipated economic and political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections.
