Africa needs to add at least 16 gigawatts (GW) of new grid-connected electricity generation each year until 2050 and invest between $3.2 billion and $4.3 billion annually in transmission infrastructure to meet its fundamental energy and economic growth targets.
This was disclosed in the “State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report 2025” released by the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).
“To meet its most basic energy needs, Africa should aim for at least 16 GW annually until 2050,” the AFC stated. “Considering population growth, such capacity addition would bring average generation capacity to 0.300 MW per thousand people on par with levels seen in India and Indonesia today.”
The AFC noted that achieving this target opens vast investment opportunities across solar PV, gas-to-power, hydropower, battery storage, and grid modernization. It stressed that with the right mix of reforms and private sector participation, Africa can build one of the most dynamic and integrated energy systems globally.
“To meet such transmission needs, Africa will require at least $3.2–4.3 billion annually through 2040,” the report added.
Learning from Latin America: A Path Forward
The report highlighted Latin America’s transmission model, especially Brazil’s, as a roadmap Africa could adopt to attract private sector investment.
Since the 1990s, Brazil has expanded its transmission network through competitive auctions and independent power transmission (IPT) models. From 2012 to 2023, Brazil’s grid grew from 105,000 km to 184,000 km, with 86,000 km auctioned over 16 years. In 2024 alone, Brazil’s first transmission tender attracted $3.65 billion equivalent to Africa’s total annual need for transmission investment.
“Brazil’s experience demonstrates that creating a viable investment pipeline anchored in regulatory reform, unbundled utilities, and long-term planning is essential to crowd in private capital at scale,” the AFC explained.
Implications for Nigeria
As Africa’s largest economy and a key driver of regional energy development, Nigeria will be central to achieving the continent-wide goal of 16 GW annual generation expansion.
Currently plagued by chronic power shortages, fragile transmission infrastructure, and overreliance on diesel generators, Nigeria must ramp up investment to avoid falling behind.
In November 2024, the Federal Government estimated that $10 billion in private investment is needed over the next five to ten years to achieve 24-hour electricity nationwide.
In April 2025, Minister of Power Adebayo Adelabu revealed that around 150 million Nigerians now have access to electricity, while 80 million still lack reliable power. He credited progress to Nigeria’s participation in the “Mission 300” initiative a joint World Bank and African Development Bank effort to provide electricity to 300 million Africans by 2030.
