Insecurity and declining trust in electoral institutions could undermine voter turnout in the 2027 general elections, despite growing willingness among Nigerians to vote, according to Yiaga Africa’s latest survey.
The third round of its National Voting Intentions Survey, NVIS 3.0, found that 84 per cent of respondents are likely or very likely to vote, up from 73 per cent in the previous survey and 77 per cent in the first round.
The report, titled “Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027″, is based on interviews with 2,470 Nigerians across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory in September 2026.
However, the proportion who are very likely to vote fell from 52 per cent in the first survey to 47 per cent in the latest round.
Insecurity emerged as the biggest barrier, with 61 per cent saying fear of violence could stop them from voting. The figure rises to 78 per cent in the North-East, while 83 per cent say improved security would encourage them to vote.
Trust in INEC has also weakened, with only 34 per cent confident that the commission will conduct credible elections, compared with 45 per cent in the two previous surveys.
Meanwhile, 49 per cent expressed confidence in BVAS accreditation and IReV result transmission, while awareness of electoral reforms rose from 24 per cent in December 2025 to 62 per cent.
Economic conditions are also expected to influence voting choices. Fifty-four per cent disapproved of the President’s performance, while 71 per cent rated the economy as poor or very poor.
The desire for a change in leadership was the leading motivation to vote at 49 per cent, followed by the economy and jobs at 38 per cent and security at 36 per cent.
Young people recorded weaker voting intentions, with only 40 per cent saying they were very likely to vote, compared with 64 per cent of those aged 61 and above.
Yiaga Africa’s Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, Safiya Bichi, said fear, distrust and money could prevent Nigerians’ willingness to vote from translating into turnout.
The organisation has called for stronger election security, greater transparency by INEC, credible electoral dispute resolution and increased efforts by political parties, civil society and the media to build public confidence ahead of the 2027 elections.
