Import spending rebounds sharply from Q1 even as it remains 59.9% below last year’s level amid rising domestic refining capacity……
Nigeria’s spending on petrol imports jumped sharply in the second quarter of 2026, reaching N952.15 billion and marking a 989.4% increase from the N87.40 billion recorded in the first quarter.
The latest figures, contained in the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) newly released foreign trade data, point to a significant rebound in imported petrol volumes and expenditure during the quarter.
Despite the steep quarterly increase, the Q2 import bill remained substantially below the level recorded a year earlier. Petrol imports were valued at N2.38 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, meaning the latest figure represents a 59.9% year-on-year decline.
The data therefore highlight a sharp reversal from the unusually low import bill recorded in the first quarter, while also showing that Nigeria’s expenditure on imported petrol remains below its 2025 level.
Petrol accounted for 6.6% of Nigeria’s total imports in Q2 2026, compared with just 0.64% in the preceding quarter.
Nigeria’s total import bill stood at N14.42 trillion during the three-month period, putting petrol expenditure at roughly one in every 15 naira spent on imported goods.
The development represents a major shift from Q1, when the N87.40 billion petrol import bill constituted only a small fraction of total imports.
The quarterly rebound also comes after petrol imports had dropped significantly from the N2.38 trillion recorded in Q2 2025.
The contrasting movements suggest that while Nigeria has continued to rely on imported petrol to supplement domestic supply, the scale of that dependence may be changing as local refining capacity expands.
The latest import figures come against the backdrop of increased activity by domestic refineries, which has gradually altered the country’s petrol supply mix.
Earlier data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that petrol imports generally declined during the first months of 2026 as domestic refinery output strengthened, although monthly fluctuations persisted.
In January, average petrol imports stood at 24.8 million litres per day, compared with 40.1 million litres supplied by local refineries.
Imports fell to 3 million litres per day in February, while domestic refinery supply declined to 29.4 million litres per day.
By March, imported supply had increased to 5.9 million litres per day, but domestic production rose more strongly to 34.2 million litres per day.
Local refinery output climbed further to 40.7 million litres per day in April, as imports dropped to 3.7 million litres per day.
In May, domestic refineries increased supply to 41.5 million litres per day, although imports also edged higher to 5.9 million litres per day.
The May increase in imports came despite the continued expansion of local refining activity, with NMDPRA data showing average daily imports rising 59.5% from April.
The changing import pattern coincides with stronger growth in Nigeria’s refining industry.
Nigeria’s oil refining sector expanded by 43.94% year-on-year in Q2 2026, recording its strongest quarterly growth as domestic processing capacity continued to increase.
The Dangote refinery remains a major driver of the expansion.
Following maintenance and expansion work completed in February 2026, the facility’s crude oil distillation capacity increased from 650,000 barrels per day to 700,000 barrels per day.
The increase in domestic processing capacity is expected to gradually reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products, although the latest trade figures show that imports remain an important part of the domestic supply chain.
Nigeria’s petrol import expenditure has generally remained under pressure as domestic refining expands.
The country’s petrol import bill fell to $10 billion in 2025 from $14.06 billion in 2024, reflecting efforts to reduce reliance on imported refined products.
However, import costs in naira have historically been affected by movements in the exchange rate. In 2024, Nigeria’s overall fuel import costs surged 105.3% to N15.42 trillion, with the sharp depreciation of the naira contributing significantly to the increase in local-currency import costs.
The Q2 2026 figures suggest that while domestic refining is increasingly reshaping Nigeria’s fuel supply landscape, imported petrol remains significant.
The sharp rise from Q1 will therefore be closely watched in subsequent quarters, particularly as local refineries continue to expand output and the country seeks to reduce its dependence on imported petroleum products.
