Chamber says easing price pressures driven by short-term factors, warns economy remains vulnerable to food, FX and energy shocks…
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry has said the latest inflation figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics reflect only a temporary easing in price pressures rather than a sustained shift toward low and stable inflation.
Data released by the statistics agency on Monday showed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined slightly to 15.1 percent in January, down from 15.15 percent recorded in December 2025. Food inflation also fell sharply by 20.74 percentage points to 8.89 percent in January from 29.63 percent in the previous month.
However, in a statement issued Wednesday, Director-General of LCCI, Chinyere Almona, described the development as a disinflationary signal rather than evidence of a structural turning point in the economy.
She explained that although the figures show a slowdown in short-term price momentum, the trend remains fragile and largely influenced by cyclical, base-effect and policy-driven factors rather than deep-rooted structural improvements.
According to her, the moderation in inflation was mainly driven by a slowdown in food prices, appreciation of the exchange rate and relative stability in domestic energy costs.
She noted that the drop in food inflation reflected improved post-harvest supply and a normalization of demand following the festive season, while exchange rate gains helped reduce imported inflation and limit foreign exchange pass-through into core consumer prices. Stable petrol pricing, she added, also helped contain secondary increases in transportation and logistics costs.
Almona said the combined effect of improved food supply, exchange rate stability and calm energy prices helped ease headline inflation in the short term and slightly improved inflation expectations among businesses and consumers.
Despite the improvement, she warned that inflation remains structurally elevated and exposed to multiple upside risks, including potential disruptions to food supply, climate variability, insecurity in key agricultural regions, oil price volatility and possible renewed pressure on the exchange rate.
She stressed that the current moderation should be seen as temporary relief rather than confirmation that Nigeria has entered a low and stable inflation regime.
According to her, policy credibility in 2026 will depend not just on headline inflation numbers but on how effectively the country transforms short-term disinflation into long-term price stability through higher productivity, improved logistics, and stronger macroeconomic coordination.
