Brent trades near $68, staying about $3 above Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark amid fragile geopolitical balance….
Global oil prices moved within a tight range on Monday as investors weighed renewed diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran against lingering geopolitical tensions and fresh output signals from the OPEC+ alliance.
International benchmark data showed cautious trading across major exchanges, with price swings remaining limited despite a steady stream of market-moving headlines.
Brent crude futures edged up 3 cents to $67.78 per barrel in early trading, building on a 23-cent gain in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 2 cents to $62.86 per barrel, though no official settlement is expected due to a U.S. holiday.
At current levels, Brent remains roughly $3 above Nigeria’s 2026 oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, a modest cushion for petroleum revenue projections embedded in the country’s fiscal framework.
Weekly Performance Shows Mild Softening
Recent trading data points to slight weakness over the past week:
- Brent crude declined about 0.5 percent.
- WTI slipped roughly 1 percent.
- Brent continues to trade approximately $3 above Nigeria’s benchmark assumption.
The figures suggest that while crude has eased slightly, supply management efforts and geopolitical risk premiums are preventing sharper declines.
Diplomacy Meets Deterrence
Oil markets are closely tracking diplomatic signals between Washington and Tehran. Comments last week by U.S. President Donald Trump indicating that a deal with Iran could be reached within a month introduced downward pressure, as traders factored in the possibility of relaxed sanctions and additional Iranian crude returning to global markets.
Negotiations aimed at resolving disputes over Iran’s nuclear programme resumed earlier this month, with a second round of talks scheduled in Geneva. According to reports, Tehran is seeking an agreement that could pave the way for broader economic cooperation spanning energy, mining and civil aviation.
However, tensions remain elevated. The United States has reportedly deployed a second aircraft carrier to the region, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned of retaliation if attacked. The mix of diplomacy and military signalling has kept a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices.
OPEC+ Output Plans Add Another Layer
Beyond geopolitics, supply dynamics are also shaping expectations. The OPEC+ alliance is leaning toward resuming previously paused production increases from April after a three-month halt.
The proposed move is intended to balance market stability with anticipated peak summer demand. While additional barrels could ease upward price pressure if demand softens, any disruption to Middle East supply routes would likely tighten markets quickly.
For now, the interplay between controlled output adjustments and geopolitical uncertainty is keeping prices largely range-bound.
Implications for Nigeria
Nigeria’s 2026 fiscal framework, approved by the Federal Executive Council, is anchored on an oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and a production target of 2.6 million barrels per day.
Recent trading showed Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude grade, dipping below $69 per barrel last week, mirroring broader global softness.
While Brent’s current level provides a limited revenue buffer, sustained price weakness or volatility triggered by diplomatic or supply shifts could still influence fiscal outcomes in the months ahead.
For now, the oil market appears to be in wait-and-see mode, balancing diplomacy, deterrence and disciplined supply management in a fragile equilibrium.
