NMDPRA data shows rising local output as refinery scales operations toward full capacity and narrows import gap…
Nigeria’s domestic fuel supply recorded a significant uplift in January 2026 as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery delivered an average of 40.1 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) per day to the local market.
Fresh data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows that the January figure represents an increase of roughly eight million litres per day compared to the 32 million litres recorded in December 2025, underscoring a steady ramp-up in refining output.
The latest performance places the refinery at the centre of Nigeria’s strategy to strengthen domestic fuel production and reduce reliance on imports.
Supply Dynamics in January
According to the regulator’s report, Nigeria’s domestic supply benchmark for PMS stands at 75 million litres per day. With Dangote Refinery now supplying over 40 million litres daily, it accounts for a substantial share of local output.
Average PMS consumption in January 2026 was put at 60.2 million litres per day. Imports largely by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) and other marketers averaged 24.8 million litres daily during the same period.
Overall, total PMS supply into the domestic market averaged 64.9 million litres per day in January.
The NMDPRA noted that consumption figures are calculated based on truck-out volumes into the domestic market, which serve as the primary metric for measuring effective distribution.
The data highlights the refinery’s expanding footprint in the downstream sector, as local production increasingly complements imports.
Moving Toward Full Capacity
Located in the Lekki Free Zone in Lagos, the Dangote facility is designed as a 650,000 barrels-per-day single-train refinery, the largest of its kind globally.
The company recently announced that it has reached its full nameplate capacity, describing the milestone as historic for a single-train refinery of that scale. The plant has been undergoing phased ramp-up since commissioning, with management focusing on stabilising operations and optimising output.
In December 2025, the refinery projected it could supply up to 50 million litres of PMS daily between December and January. Since then, its Crude Distillation Unit and Motor Spirit production block have reportedly achieved steady-state operations.
A 72-hour performance test run is also underway in collaboration with technology licensor UOP to validate operational efficiency and confirm compliance with global standards.
Industry analysts view these milestones as pivotal to strengthening Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market, long characterised by import dependence and supply volatility.
Wider Economic Implications
The refinery’s expanding production capacity is already influencing broader economic conversations. Prominent investor Femi Otedola recently projected that the naira could appreciate to below N1,000 per dollar before year-end, citing reduced import demand and increased local refining output as key drivers.
Earlier figures from the NMDPRA showed that Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption rose to 63.7 million litres per day in December 2025, reflecting sustained demand despite pricing adjustments and market reforms.
With January’s output now exceeding 40 million litres per day, Nigeria appears to be inching closer to its domestic supply target — a development that could reshape the country’s fuel import profile and improve energy security in the months ahead.
