The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released a total of $1.259 billion to oil sector operators for the importation of petroleum products and related items within the first quarter of 2025.
According to new data obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the disbursement covered import transactions between January and March 2025, despite the availability of locally refined petrol from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The figure comes amid the ongoing struggle for market dominance between fuel importers and the Dangote Refinery, which began large-scale domestic supply earlier in the year.
Import Volumes and Forex Breakdown
Between August 2024 and the first ten days of October 2025, petroleum marketers imported about 69 percent of the 21 billion litres of petrol consumed in Nigeria, underscoring the continued dependence on foreign fuel supplies.
In the first three months of 2025 alone, importers brought in approximately 2.28 billion litres of petrol, even as local refining capacity improved.
Data from the CBN’s Quarterly Statistical Bulletin show that a total of $1.26 billion was released for fuel import transactions during the period. A month-by-month breakdown reveals that:
- $457.83 million was disbursed in January (36.2% of the total),
- $283.54 million in February (22.5%), and
- $517.55 million in March (41.3%).
NMDPRA figures further indicated that import volumes stood at 724.5 million litres in January, 760 million litres in February, and 803.7 million litres in March.
Shift Toward Local Refining Begins
Although the import figures remain high, they represent one of the lowest quarterly import levels in recent years, a reflection of the gradual shift toward local refining and blending of petroleum products, analysts say.
Fuel importation has long been a major drain on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, contributing to naira volatility and increasing external pressure on the economy.
Industry experts believe that as the Dangote Refinery and other modular refineries ramp up production, the country’s reliance on imported fuel could drop significantly by 2026.
Marketers Prioritise Pricing Over Source
Speaking on the development, the National Publicity Officer of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, said marketers’ purchasing decisions are primarily driven by price and not sentiment.
“In this business, pricing is everything,” Ukadike explained. “Marketers will always go for the most affordable option because our margins are very thin. If imported products are cheaper, we have no choice but to patronise importers. But if Dangote’s refinery offers a better price, we’ll buy locally.”
He noted that price differences between imported and locally refined petrol fluctuate with global oil prices, exchange rates, and government policy adjustments.
“No marketer can afford sentiment when it comes to survival,” he added. “Our decisions are driven by economics, not emotion.”
Refinery Competition and Price Dynamics
The competition between the Dangote Refinery and fuel importers has intensified in recent months, as both sides seek to control supply chains and market share in the downstream petroleum sector.
While some marketers continue to import petrol, the Dangote Refinery has simultaneously exported products to foreign markets, including the United States, maintaining that it has the capacity to meet Nigeria’s full fuel demand and supply neighbouring countries.
However, pricing remains the key determinant in marketers’ sourcing decisions.
Meanwhile, the latest Energy Bulletin by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) showed that the import parity price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) has dropped to ₦805.46 per litre at the prevailing exchange rate, reflecting the ongoing impact of global oil price adjustments and naira fluctuations.
Context
Analysts say the CBN’s continued forex support to fuel importers, even amid local refining growth, highlights the transitional phase of Nigeria’s downstream sector. While the Dangote Refinery’s expansion to 1.4 million barrels per day is expected to reduce imports further, market realities, especially pricing and distribution logistics continue to shape sourcing decisions for now.
