The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has issued a stark warning that the world could face a supply shortfall of up to 23 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030 if urgent and sustained investments in upstream oil projects are not made.
According to Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC’s Secretary-General, the oil industry will require cumulative investments of $17.4 trillion between now and 2050 to meet rising global energy demand. He delivered these remarks via a pre-recorded message during the 24th Nigeria Oil and Gas (NOG) Energy Week Conference and Exhibition, held on Tuesday in Abuja.
Al Ghais emphasized that the exploration and production (E&P) segments would account for the lion’s share of these investments approximately $14.2 trillion, translating to over $525 billion annually. He described these figures as critical to preventing future supply crises and ensuring energy security.
“OPEC research indicates that, without sufficient upstream investment, the oil market could face a deficit of 23 million barrels per day by 2030,” he said.
Global Demand Surging Amid Urbanisation and Population Growth
Themed “Accelerating Global Energy Progress Through Investment, Partnership and Innovation,” the conference focused on how the oil and gas industry can meet future energy needs in a changing world. Al Ghais noted that global energy demand is expected to grow by 23% by 2050, spurred by population growth, urbanisation, and economic development, particularly in emerging economies.
OPEC forecasts the global population will rise from 8.2 billion in 2024 to nearly 9.7 billion by 2050, with around 1.9 billion people migrating to urban centres, placing increasing pressure on energy systems and infrastructure.
At the same time, Al Ghais pointed out that 675 million people still lack access to electricity, and 2.3 billion rely on traditional biomass or other unsafe fuels for cooking underscoring the ongoing challenge of energy poverty.
“Despite growing efforts to transition to cleaner energy, hydrocarbons particularly oil and gas will remain central to the global energy mix,” he added.
Oil to Remain Dominant Energy Source
According to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook, oil is projected to retain a dominant share in the global energy mix, making up nearly 30% of energy consumption by 2050, with oil and natural gas together accounting for over 50%.
Al Ghais highlighted that while the energy transition is underway, developing nations must continue leveraging their natural resources to fuel economic growth and industrialisation. He also stressed the growing role of innovation in making the oil and gas value chain more efficient and environmentally responsible.
“Innovation is driving cleaner, more efficient solutions throughout the oil and gas industry, enabling us to meet demand while reducing environmental impact,” he said.
As the world grapples with the twin challenges of climate change and energy poverty, OPEC’s message is clear: investment in oil and gas remains not only necessary but urgent especially if the world is to avoid a crippling supply gap and ensure equitable energy access.
