Despite escalating global trade tensions and a sluggish global economy, the World Bank has maintained Nigeria’s projected economic growth at 3.6 percent for 2025, citing the country’s bold domestic reforms and robust services sector as key drivers of resilience.
In its latest global economic outlook released Tuesday, the Washington-based lender noted that Nigeria’s GDP will expand by 0.2 percentage points in 2025, up from an estimated 3.4 percent growth in 2024.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 3.6 percent in 2025 and to an average of 3.8 percent in 2026–27,” the report stated. “Services activity will continue to be the main driver of growth, while the industrial sector will remain constrained by subdued crude oil production as last year’s slight rebound wanes.”
This steady outlook stands in contrast to a global economy facing serious headwinds. The World Bank downgraded global growth to 2.3 percent, down from 2.7 percent, marking the weakest expansion in nearly two decades outside of major crises.
Nigeria, however, has managed to buck the trend. The country posted its fastest economic growth in over a decade in 2024, bolstered by robust performance in financial services, telecommunications, transportation, and a modest recovery in oil production.
That momentum is expected to carry into 2025, even as global markets face disruptions from ongoing trade tensions, particularly those sparked by tariff battles initiated under former U.S. President Donald Trump. These tensions have sent ripples through global trade flows and contributed to economic uncertainty in emerging markets.
While Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, has faced the dual challenges of volatile oil prices and a weakened naira in recent months, the currency has started to stabilize and inflation is showing signs of easing. Analysts credit this to fiscal and monetary reforms that have fortified the economy against external shocks.
According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s structural reforms such as the floating of the naira and the removal of fuel subsidies have significantly improved the fiscal position, led to stronger revenues at the subnational level, and increased remittances from government-owned enterprises.
“Domestic reforms have helped spur investment, supporting growth in the services sector, especially in financial services and information and communication technology,” the Bank said.
In parallel, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has remained committed to its inflation-fighting mandate. The CBN raised its policy rate six times in 2024 in response to soaring inflation. Although inflation remains elevated, recent trends suggest it is gradually declining, and the monetary authorities continue to adopt a hawkish stance to ensure price stability and maintain the naira’s fair value.
The World Bank’s report underscores that Nigeria’s reform-driven approach is starting to yield results even as the global economy experiences its most sluggish performance since the financial crisis. With services continuing to lead economic activity and monetary policy remaining tight, Nigeria appears well-positioned to navigate future uncertainties while targeting sustained growth.
