Headline inflation records marginal decline, but accelerating food costs remain a major concern for households….
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate recorded a slight decline in June 2026, offering another indication that overall price pressures may be easing, even as the cost of food continues to climb.
Fresh figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that the country’s headline inflation rate stood at 15.91% in June, marginally lower than the 15.93% recorded in May.
Compared to the 25.29% posted in June 2025, the latest figure represents a significant year-on-year slowdown in inflation, suggesting that the pace of price increases has moderated over the past 12 months.
The report also showed an improvement on a month-on-month basis, with inflation easing to 1.66% in June from 1.75% in May, indicating that consumer prices rose at a slower pace during the month.
Food inflation remains stubborn
Despite the slight improvement in headline inflation, food prices continued to exert pressure on households across the country.
According to the NBS, food inflation rose to 17.52% year-on-year in June, while the monthly food inflation rate accelerated to 3.75%, up from 2.98% recorded in May.
The increase suggests that food costs remain one of the biggest drivers of household spending despite broader signs of easing inflation.
Urban, rural inflation show mixed trends
The statistics office reported that urban inflation stood at 16.08% year-on-year in June, while the monthly rate climbed to 2.13%, compared with 1.99% in May.
In contrast, rural inflation was recorded at 15.48% year-on-year, with the month-on-month rate slowing significantly to 0.52%, down from 1.17% in the previous month.
Core inflation continues downward trend
Core inflation which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy also maintained its downward trajectory.
The NBS said the core inflation rate settled at 15.92% in June, a sharp decline from 25.41% recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
On a monthly basis, core inflation eased to 1.66%, down from 1.94% in May, pointing to a broader moderation in underlying inflationary pressures.
Kogi records highest food inflation
At the state level, Kogi recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation rate at 53.02%, followed by Niger at 43.83% and Benue at 40.83%.
The slowest annual increases were recorded in Katsina (19.15%), Rivers (23.81%) and Imo (24.60%).
On a month-on-month basis, Katsina experienced the highest food inflation at 16.82%, ahead of Kebbi (9.79%) and Niger (8.96%).
Meanwhile, Borno posted the lowest monthly food inflation rate at -3.54%, followed by Benue (-2.36%) and Bayelsa (-1.34%), indicating a decline in food prices during the month.
What it means
The latest inflation figures are likely to strengthen expectations that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) could maintain its cautious monetary policy stance as headline and core inflation continue to soften.
However, the continued rise in food inflation remains a significant challenge, with higher food costs continuing to erode household purchasing power and increase the cost of living.
Going forward, economists will be watching whether exchange rate stability, improved food production, lower energy costs and ongoing government interventions can sustain the disinflation trend through the second half of 2026.
